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Primeira Liga

Benfica

S T S S S

1–0

Full-time

Setubal

T U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 9%

17%

Average goals

3,0

0,8

Scored

2,5

0,2

Conceded

0,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 9%

17%

Average goals

3,0

0,8

Scored

2,5

0,2

Conceded

0,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

13 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 2

14 Corners 3

11 Free kicks against 8

4 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 3. · Setubal 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	0	1	+15	18
2	Famalicao	6	5	1	0	+7	16
3	Benfica	6	5	0	1	+12	15
4	Boavista	7	2	5	0	+2	11
5	Rio Ave	6	3	1	2	+4	10
6	Tondela	8	2	4	2	+0	10
7	Guimaraes	6	2	3	1	+3	9
8	Sp Lisbon	6	2	2	2	+1	8
9	Santa Clara	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Setubal	6	1	4	1	-3	7
13	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	4	1	-3	7
14	Gil Vicente	7	1	4	2	-4	7
15	Portimonense	7	1	3	3	-3	6
16	Belenenses	6	1	2	3	-3	5
17	Sp Braga	7	1	2	4	-5	5
18	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	1	4	-8	4
19	Aves	6	1	0	5	-9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+13	12
2	Gil Vicente	5	1	4	0	+1	7
3	Benfica	3	2	0	1	+5	6
4	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Moreirense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
6	Boavista	4	1	3	0	+1	6
7	Setubal	4	1	3	0	+1	6
8	Vitoria Setubal	4	1	3	0	+1	6
9	Guimaraes	3	1	2	0	+4	5
10	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	+2	4
11	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	-2	4
14	Aves	2	1	0	1	+1	3
15	Sp Lisbon	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	0	2	-1	3
17	Portimonense	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Belenenses	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Famalicao	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+7	9
3	Tondela	5	2	3	0	+3	9
4	Porto	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Rio Ave	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Sp Lisbon	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Belenenses	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Boavista	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Portimonense	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Maritimo	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Moreirense	5	0	2	3	-5	2
14	Sp Braga	4	0	1	3	-3	1
15	Setubal	2	0	1	1	-4	1
16	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	1	1	-4	1
17	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	1	2	-7	1
18	Gil Vicente	2	0	0	2	-5	0
19	Aves	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.