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Championship

Referee: J Linington

Birmingham

S U T S T

2–1

Full-time

Stoke

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

1,8

3,7

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,2

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,3

This season — Championship · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

40%

Points per game

1,4

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

40%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

20%

80%

Average goals

2,2

3,6

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,4

2,6

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-1,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%

12 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

24 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 15. · Stoke 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Swansea	5	4	1	0	+7	13
3	Charlton	5	3	2	0	+4	11
4	Bristol City	6	3	2	1	+3	11
5	Fulham	5	3	0	2	+5	9
6	Preston	5	3	0	2	+4	9
7	Sheffield Weds	5	3	0	2	+3	9
8	West Brom	5	2	3	0	+2	9
9	Nott'm Forest	5	2	2	1	+3	8
10	Millwall	5	2	2	1	-2	8
11	Reading	5	2	1	2	+2	7
12	QPR	5	2	1	2	-1	7
13	Blackburn	5	2	1	2	-1	7
14	Cardiff	5	2	1	2	-2	7
15	Birmingham	5	2	1	2	-3	7
16	Derby	5	1	3	1	+0	6
17	Middlesbrough	6	1	3	2	-1	6
18	Luton	5	1	1	3	-1	4
19	Brentford	5	1	1	3	-2	4
20	Hull	5	1	1	3	-3	4
21	Barnsley	5	1	1	3	-5	4
22	Wigan	5	1	0	4	-7	3
23	Huddersfield	5	0	1	4	-5	1
24	Stoke	5	0	1	4	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Swansea	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Charlton	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Fulham	3	2	0	1	+5	6
5	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Millwall	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Bristol City	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Blackburn	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	+2	3
16	Reading	2	1	0	1	+1	3
17	Wigan	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	Hull	3	1	0	2	-2	3
19	West Brom	2	0	2	0	+0	2
20	Derby	3	0	2	1	-1	2
21	Luton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-4	1
24	Huddersfield	3	0	0	3	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Nott'm Forest	3	1	2	0	+1	5
5	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Reading	3	1	1	1	+1	4
7	Charlton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Luton	3	1	0	2	+0	3
10	Sheffield Weds	3	1	0	2	+0	3
11	Fulham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	QPR	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Brentford	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Birmingham	3	1	0	2	-5	3
16	Middlesbrough	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Millwall	3	0	2	1	-4	2
18	Hull	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-4	1
21	Preston	2	0	0	2	-2	0
22	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-4	0
23	Barnsley	2	0	0	2	-4	0
24	Wigan	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.