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Championship

Referee: G Ward

Derby

T S U U T

1–1

Full-time

West Brom

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby West Brom

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

This season — Championship · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 88%

75%

100%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

11 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 14. · West Brom 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Swansea	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Fulham	4	3	0	1	+6	9
4	Sheffield Weds	4	3	0	1	+4	9
5	Charlton	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	West Brom	4	2	2	0	+2	8
7	Bristol City	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Birmingham	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Millwall	4	2	1	1	-2	7
10	Preston	4	2	0	2	+3	6
11	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	-1	6
12	Cardiff	4	2	0	2	-2	6
13	Nott'm Forest	4	1	2	1	+2	5
14	Derby	4	1	2	1	+0	5
15	Reading	4	1	1	2	+0	4
16	Hull	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Middlesbrough	4	1	1	2	-1	4
18	Brentford	4	1	1	2	-1	4
19	QPR	4	1	1	2	-3	4
20	Barnsley	4	1	1	2	-3	4
21	Wigan	4	1	0	3	-5	3
22	Luton	4	0	1	3	-3	1
23	Huddersfield	4	0	1	3	-3	1
24	Stoke	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Preston	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Swansea	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Millwall	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Charlton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	+2	3
12	Reading	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Hull	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Wigan	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	West Brom	2	0	2	0	+0	2
19	Luton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	Derby	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	QPR	2	0	1	1	-2	1
24	Huddersfield	2	0	0	2	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	West Brom	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Charlton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Fulham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Brentford	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	QPR	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Nott'm Forest	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Middlesbrough	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Reading	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Hull	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-4	1
19	Preston	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Luton	2	0	0	2	-2	0
21	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-4	0
22	Cardiff	2	0	0	2	-4	0
23	Wigan	2	0	0	2	-4	0
24	Barnsley	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.