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Championship

Referee: D England

Derby

U U T U T

1–1

Full-time

Cardiff

T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

This season — Championship · 6/5 matches

Win Ø 29%

17%

40%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

67%

80%

Both score Ø 64%

67%

60%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

63% Possession 37%

13 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 19. · Cardiff 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Swansea	6	5	1	0	+8	16
2	Charlton	6	4	2	0	+6	14
3	Leeds	6	4	1	1	+7	13
4	West Brom	6	3	3	0	+3	12
5	Bristol City	6	3	2	1	+3	11
6	Preston	6	3	1	2	+4	10
7	QPR	6	3	1	2	+0	10
8	Birmingham	6	3	1	2	-2	10
9	Fulham	5	3	0	2	+5	9
10	Nott'm Forest	6	2	3	1	+3	9
11	Sheffield Weds	6	3	0	3	+2	9
12	Millwall	6	2	3	1	-2	9
13	Brentford	6	2	1	3	+1	7
14	Luton	6	2	1	3	+0	7
15	Reading	6	2	1	3	+0	7
16	Cardiff	5	2	1	2	-2	7
17	Blackburn	6	2	1	3	-2	7
18	Middlesbrough	6	1	3	2	-1	6
19	Derby	6	1	3	2	-3	6
20	Hull	6	1	2	3	-3	5
21	Barnsley	6	1	2	3	-5	5
22	Wigan	6	1	1	4	-7	4
23	Huddersfield	6	0	1	5	-6	1
24	Stoke	6	0	1	5	-9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Swansea	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Charlton	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Birmingham	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Millwall	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Fulham	3	2	0	1	+5	6
7	Sheffield Weds	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	West Brom	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Nott'm Forest	3	1	1	1	+2	4
11	Brentford	3	1	1	1	+2	4
12	Luton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Bristol City	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Leeds	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	+0	4
17	Blackburn	3	1	1	1	+0	4
18	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	-1	4
19	Wigan	3	1	1	1	-1	4
20	Reading	3	1	0	2	-1	3
21	Hull	3	1	0	2	-2	3
22	Derby	3	0	2	1	-1	2
23	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-4	1
24	Huddersfield	3	0	0	3	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Charlton	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	QPR	3	2	0	1	+0	6
7	Nott'm Forest	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Reading	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Derby	3	1	1	1	-2	4
10	Luton	3	1	0	2	+0	3
11	Sheffield Weds	3	1	0	2	+0	3
12	Fulham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Brentford	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Blackburn	3	1	0	2	-2	3
15	Birmingham	3	1	0	2	-5	3
16	Middlesbrough	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Hull	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Millwall	3	0	2	1	-4	2
19	Preston	3	0	1	2	-2	1
20	Huddersfield	3	0	1	2	-2	1
21	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-4	1
22	Barnsley	3	0	1	2	-4	1
23	Stoke	3	0	0	3	-5	0
24	Wigan	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.