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Eliteserien

Referee: Tore Hansen

Molde

T S T T S

4–0

Full-time

Lillestrom

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Molde Lillestrom

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

100%

17%

Average goals

4,7

2,2

Scored

2,2

1,2

Conceded

2,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eliteserien · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 48%

48%

Points per game

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

70%

63%

Both score Ø 61%

59%

63%

Average goals

3,5

3,1

Scored

2,1

1,7

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

1,32 xG 1,14

52% Possession 48%

14 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 0

4 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 5

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Molde 5. · Lillestrom 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	28	21	4	3	+40	+20.0	67
2	Brann	28	18	4	6	+21	+4.7	58
3	Tromso	28	18	3	7	+14	+10.4	57
4	Viking	28	17	4	7	+13	+4.5	55
5	Molde	27	13	5	9	+20	+11.8	44
6	Lillestrom	27	13	3	11	+5	+7.4	42
7	Sarpsborg 08	28	12	5	11	+7	+5.2	41
8	Stromsgodset	28	11	3	14	-3	-4.1	36
9	Rosenborg	28	10	6	12	-6	-4.3	36
10	Odd	28	9	7	12	-5	-5.6	34
11	Ham-Kam	28	10	3	15	-18	-15.5	33
12	Haugesund	28	8	6	14	-8	-3.9	30
13	Sandefjord	28	7	7	14	-8	-14.0	28
14	Stabaek	28	6	8	14	-16	-8.3	26
15	Valerenga	28	6	7	15	-13	-2.7	25
16	Aalesund	28	5	3	20	-43	-5.8	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	14	11	2	1	+21	+9.2	35
2	Brann	14	11	2	1	+18	+2.0	35
3	Viking	14	10	2	2	+15	+2.6	32
4	Lillestrom	14	9	0	5	+11	+5.3	27
5	Molde	13	8	2	3	+17	+6.7	26
6	Sarpsborg 08	14	8	2	4	+13	+3.2	26
7	Tromso	14	8	2	4	+7	+8.1	26
8	Rosenborg	14	7	3	4	+6	+3.7	24
9	Stromsgodset	14	7	1	6	+4	+1.6	22
10	Odd	14	6	4	4	+4	+1.5	22
11	Ham-Kam	14	6	3	5	+1	-7.6	21
12	Sandefjord	14	5	5	4	+8	-8.0	20
13	Haugesund	14	6	2	6	+1	-3.9	20
14	Stabaek	14	5	3	6	+0	-4.0	18
15	Aalesund	14	4	3	7	-10	+3.8	15
16	Valerenga	14	2	3	9	-10	+3.2	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	14	10	2	2	+19	+10.9	32
2	Tromso	14	10	1	3	+7	+2.3	31
3	Brann	14	7	2	5	+3	+2.8	23
4	Viking	14	7	2	5	-2	+1.8	23
5	Molde	14	5	3	6	+3	+5.1	18
6	Valerenga	14	4	4	6	-3	-5.9	16
7	Sarpsborg 08	14	4	3	7	-6	+2.0	15
8	Lillestrom	13	4	3	6	-6	+2.1	15
9	Stromsgodset	14	4	2	8	-7	-5.7	14
10	Odd	14	3	3	8	-9	-7.1	12
11	Rosenborg	14	3	3	8	-12	-8.0	12
12	Ham-Kam	14	4	0	10	-19	-7.9	12
13	Haugesund	14	2	4	8	-9	+0.0	10
14	Sandefjord	14	2	2	10	-16	-6.0	8
15	Stabaek	14	1	5	8	-16	-4.3	8
16	Aalesund	14	1	0	13	-33	-9.6	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.