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Serie A
Referee: G Aureliano
Udinese
U U U T S
1–1
Full-time
Atalanta
S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Udinese Atalanta
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
1,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,0
3,0
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Serie A · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 32%
9%
55%
Points per game
0,9
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 41%
27%
55%
Both score Ø 41%
45%
36%
Average goals
1,9
2,6
Scored
0,6
1,7
Conceded
1,3
0,9
Goal diff per game
-0,6
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,52 xG 0,74
34% Possession 66%
13 Shots 8
4 Shots on target 2
5 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 7
1 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Udinese 16. · Atalanta 5.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Juventus 12 9 2 1 +12 +12.5 29
2 Inter 11 9 1 1 +21 +14.1 28
3 Milan 12 7 2 3 +6 +3.3 23
4 Napoli 12 6 3 3 +11 +12.9 21
5 Atalanta 11 6 1 4 +9 +5.8 19
6 Bologna 11 4 6 1 +4 +2.3 18
7 Roma 11 5 2 4 +8 +5.5 17
8 Fiorentina 11 5 2 4 +3 -3.3 17
9 Monza 12 4 5 3 +2 +0.3 17
10 Lazio 11 5 1 5 +0 +1.1 16
11 Torino 12 4 4 4 -4 -1.4 16
12 Frosinone 11 4 3 4 -1 -2.6 15
13 Lecce 12 3 5 4 -3 -7.5 14
14 Genoa 12 4 2 6 -3 -2.1 14
15 Sassuolo 12 3 3 6 -5 -7.1 12
16 Udinese 11 1 7 3 -7 +0.5 10
17 Empoli 12 3 1 8 -16 -5.7 10
18 Cagliari 12 2 3 7 -12 -5.0 9
19 Verona 12 2 2 8 -9 -10.0 8
20 Salernitana 12 0 5 7 -16 -13.5 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Udinese Atalanta
37′
🟨 Hans Hateboer
João Ferreira 🟨
41′
1–0 Walace
L. Samardžić
44′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 A. Lookman
↦ Mario Pašalić
46′
🔁 G. Scamacca
↦ L. Muriel
51′
🔁 E. Holm
↦ H. Hateboer
58′
🟨 Teun Koopmeiners
65′
🔁 N. Zortea
↦ M. Bakker
S. Lovrić 🔁
↦ M. Payero
71′
Jaka Bijol 🟨
77′
T. Kristensen 🔁
↦ João Ferreira
77′
H. Kamara 🔁
↦ J. Zemura
82′
F. Thauvin 🔁
↦ L. Samardžić
83′
L. Lucca 🔁
↦ I. Success
83′
83′
🔁 D. Zappacosta
↦ E. Holm
89′
🟨 Marten de Roon
92′
Éderson 1–1
D. Zappacosta
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Udinese

3-5-1-1
1 M. Silvestri G
13 João Ferreira D
29 J. Bijol D
18 N. Pérez D
2 F. Ebosele M
24 L. Samardžić M
11 Walace M
32 M. Payero M
33 J. Zemura M
37 R. Pereyra F
7 I. Success F
Bench (15)
4 S. Lovrić
31 T. Kristensen
12 H. Kamara
26 F. Thauvin
17 L. Lucca
93 D. Padelli
3 A. Masina
80 S. Pafundi
20 Vivaldo Semedo
21 E. Camara
40 M. Okoye
6 Oier Zarraga
15 M. Aké
16 A. Tikvić
8 Domingos Quina

Coach: G. Cioffi

Atalanta

3-4-1-2
29 M. Carnesecchi G
15 M. de Roon D
19 B. Djimsiti D
23 S. Kolašinac D
33 H. Hateboer M
7 T. Koopmeiners M
13 Éderson M
20 M. Bakker M
59 A. Miranchuk F
9 L. Muriel F
8 Mario Pašalić F
Bench (9)
11 A. Lookman
90 G. Scamacca
3 E. Holm
21 N. Zortea
77 D. Zappacosta
31 F. Rossi
43 G. Bonfanti
1 J. Musso
25 M. Adopo

Coach: G. Gasperini

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,73
U ✓
3,49
B
2,03
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,94
U2,5 ✓
1,88
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

G Aureliano · 66 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.