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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Aston Villa

S S S T S

3–1

Full-time

Fulham

S T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Fulham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 46%

64%

27%

Points per game

2,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

73%

36%

Both score Ø 50%

64%

36%

Average goals

3,8

2,4

Scored

2,4

0,8

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,08 xG 0,93

51% Possession 49%

12 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 2

3 Offside 7

4 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 5. · Fulham 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	11	9	0	2	+20	+13.8	27
2	Arsenal	12	8	3	1	+16	+12.1	27
3	Tottenham	12	8	2	2	+9	+0.3	26
4	Liverpool	11	7	3	1	+14	+12.2	24
5	Aston Villa	11	7	1	3	+10	+5.9	22
6	Man United	12	7	0	5	-3	-1.4	21
7	Newcastle	12	6	2	4	+14	+10.2	20
8	Brighton	11	5	3	3	+4	+3.1	18
9	Brentford	11	4	4	3	+5	+6.4	16
10	Chelsea	11	4	3	4	+5	+10.4	15
11	Wolves	12	4	3	5	-4	-2.8	15
12	Crystal Palace	12	4	3	5	-4	-2.7	15
13	West Ham	11	4	2	5	-2	-4.8	14
14	Everton	12	4	2	6	-3	+2.1	14
15	Nott'm Forest	11	3	4	4	-3	-5.3	13
16	Fulham	11	3	3	5	-8	-7.9	12
17	Bournemouth	12	2	3	7	-16	-10.3	9
18	Luton	12	1	3	8	-12	-12.0	6
19	Sheffield United	11	1	1	9	-21	-16.5	4
20	Burnley	12	1	1	10	-21	-12.7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	7	5	2	0	+11	+8.5	17
2	Aston Villa	5	5	0	0	+16	+6.9	15
3	Man City	5	5	0	0	+13	+2.9	15
4	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+12	+10.4	15
5	Newcastle	6	5	0	1	+11	+7.9	15
6	Tottenham	5	4	0	1	+3	-0.7	12
7	Man United	7	4	0	3	-2	+0.3	12
8	Brighton	6	3	2	1	+5	+2.2	11
9	Nott'm Forest	5	2	3	0	+3	+0.3	9
10	Brentford	6	2	3	1	+2	+3.0	9
11	Wolves	6	2	2	2	-3	-2.2	8
12	Bournemouth	7	2	2	3	-4	-4.1	8
13	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+1	-3.3	7
14	Fulham	5	2	0	3	-3	-2.3	6
15	Chelsea	6	1	2	3	-1	+3.9	5
16	Crystal Palace	6	1	2	3	-2	-0.5	5
17	Everton	6	1	1	4	-1	+4.8	4
18	Sheffield United	6	1	1	4	-10	-8.7	4
19	Luton	5	0	2	3	-3	-1.0	2
20	Burnley	6	0	0	6	-14	-5.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+6	+1.0	14
2	Man City	6	4	0	2	+7	+10.9	12
3	Chelsea	5	3	1	1	+6	+6.4	10
4	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+5	+3.6	10
5	Everton	6	3	1	2	-2	-2.7	10
6	Crystal Palace	6	3	1	2	-2	-2.2	10
7	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	+2	+1.9	9
8	Man United	5	3	0	2	-1	-1.8	9
9	Brentford	5	2	1	2	+3	+3.4	7
10	Brighton	5	2	1	2	-1	+0.8	7
11	Wolves	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.6	7
12	West Ham	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.5	7
13	Aston Villa	6	2	1	3	-6	-1.0	7
14	Fulham	6	1	3	2	-5	-5.6	6
15	Newcastle	6	1	2	3	+3	+2.3	5
16	Nott'm Forest	6	1	1	4	-6	-5.6	4
17	Burnley	6	1	1	4	-7	-6.9	4
18	Luton	7	1	1	5	-9	-11.1	4
19	Bournemouth	5	0	1	4	-12	-6.2	1
20	Sheffield United	5	0	0	5	-11	-7.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.