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Eliteserien

Referee: D Higraff

Sarpsborg 08

S U S T U

3–2

Full-time

Valerenga

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sarpsborg 08 Valerenga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,8

4,0

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,7

2,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eliteserien · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 33%

42%

23%

Points per game

1,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

73%

65%

Both score Ø 69%

69%

Average goals

3,6

3,1

Scored

1,9

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

2,21 xG 1,71

50% Possession 50%

22 Shots 12

10 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sarpsborg 08 7. · Valerenga 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	26	19	4	3	+35	+17.1	61
2	Tromso	26	17	3	6	+14	+9.2	54
3	Brann	26	16	4	6	+18	+2.5	52
4	Viking	27	16	4	7	+12	+4.4	52
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	+22	+12.3	44
6	Lillestrom	26	12	3	11	+4	+6.9	39
7	Sarpsborg 08	26	11	5	10	+7	+4.8	38
8	Odd	26	9	7	10	-3	-4.0	34
9	Stromsgodset	26	10	3	13	-3	-4.2	33
10	Rosenborg	26	9	6	11	-7	-4.7	33
11	Haugesund	26	8	6	12	-5	-2.8	30
12	Ham-Kam	27	9	3	15	-19	-14.2	30
13	Stabaek	26	6	7	13	-12	-6.1	25
14	Valerenga	26	6	6	14	-12	-3.8	24
15	Sandefjord	26	5	7	14	-12	-14.5	22
16	Aalesund	26	5	3	18	-39	-3.0	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	13	10	2	1	+20	+6.8	32
2	Brann	13	10	2	1	+17	+0.4	32
3	Viking	13	9	2	2	+14	+2.6	29
4	Molde	13	8	2	3	+17	+6.7	26
5	Tromso	13	8	2	3	+8	+6.9	26
6	Lillestrom	13	8	0	5	+10	+4.8	24
7	Sarpsborg 08	13	7	2	4	+12	+2.7	23
8	Stromsgodset	13	7	1	5	+5	+0.3	22
9	Odd	13	6	4	3	+5	+1.5	22
10	Rosenborg	13	6	3	4	+4	+3.3	21
11	Ham-Kam	14	6	3	5	+1	-7.6	21
12	Haugesund	13	6	2	5	+3	-3.3	20
13	Stabaek	13	5	3	5	+4	-3.4	18
14	Sandefjord	13	4	5	4	+7	-8.1	17
15	Aalesund	13	4	3	6	-7	+4.2	15
16	Valerenga	13	2	2	9	-10	+1.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	13	9	2	2	+15	+10.3	29
2	Tromso	13	9	1	3	+6	+2.3	28
3	Viking	14	7	2	5	-2	+1.8	23
4	Brann	13	6	2	5	+1	+2.2	20
5	Molde	13	5	3	5	+5	+5.5	18
6	Valerenga	13	4	4	5	-2	-5.4	16
7	Sarpsborg 08	13	4	3	6	-5	+2.1	15
8	Lillestrom	13	4	3	6	-6	+2.1	15
9	Odd	13	3	3	7	-8	-5.5	12
10	Rosenborg	13	3	3	7	-11	-8.0	12
11	Stromsgodset	13	3	2	8	-8	-4.5	11
12	Haugesund	13	2	4	7	-8	+0.5	10
13	Ham-Kam	13	3	0	10	-20	-6.6	9
14	Stabaek	13	1	4	8	-16	-2.7	7
15	Sandefjord	13	1	2	10	-19	-6.4	5
16	Aalesund	13	1	0	12	-32	-7.2	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.