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Premier League

Referee: J Gillett

Nott'm Forest

T U U U T

2–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

0,7

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,2

4,0

Scored

0,7

3,2

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 45%

20%

70%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

50%

80%

Both score Ø 65%

60%

70%

Average goals

2,5

4,0

Scored

1,0

2,6

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,38 xG 1,23

27% Possession 73%

5 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

0 Corners 10

9 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 16. · Aston Villa 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	11	9	0	2	+20	+13.8	27
2	Tottenham	10	8	2	0	+13	+5.0	26
3	Arsenal	11	7	3	1	+14	+10.5	24
4	Liverpool	10	7	2	1	+14	+10.2	23
5	Aston Villa	10	7	1	2	+12	+5.1	22
6	Newcastle	11	6	2	3	+16	+12.1	20
7	Brighton	11	5	3	3	+4	+3.1	18
8	Man United	11	6	0	5	-4	-3.2	18
9	Brentford	11	4	4	3	+5	+6.4	16
10	Crystal Palace	11	4	3	4	-3	-3.3	15
11	West Ham	11	4	2	5	-2	-4.8	14
12	Chelsea	10	3	3	4	+2	+7.1	12
13	Wolves	11	3	3	5	-5	-4.2	12
14	Fulham	11	3	3	5	-8	-7.9	12
15	Everton	11	3	2	6	-4	+2.8	11
16	Nott'm Forest	10	2	4	4	-5	-4.5	10
17	Bournemouth	11	1	3	7	-18	-12.3	6
18	Luton	10	1	2	7	-11	-8.2	5
19	Burnley	11	1	1	9	-19	-11.1	4
20	Sheffield United	11	1	1	9	-21	-16.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	5	5	0	0	+16	+6.9	15
2	Man City	5	5	0	0	+13	+2.9	15
3	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+12	+10.4	15
4	Newcastle	6	5	0	1	+11	+7.9	15
5	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+9	+6.8	14
6	Tottenham	4	4	0	0	+6	+2.5	12
7	Brighton	6	3	2	1	+5	+2.2	11
8	Brentford	6	2	3	1	+2	+3.0	9
9	Man United	6	3	0	3	-3	-1.4	9
10	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+1	-3.3	7
11	Nott'm Forest	4	1	3	0	+1	+1.1	6
12	Fulham	5	2	0	3	-3	-2.3	6
13	Chelsea	6	1	2	3	-1	+3.9	5
14	Crystal Palace	5	1	2	2	-1	-1.1	5
15	Wolves	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.6	5
16	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-6	-6.1	5
17	Everton	6	1	1	4	-1	+4.8	4
18	Sheffield United	6	1	1	4	-10	-8.7	4
19	Luton	4	0	1	3	-3	+1.1	1
20	Burnley	6	0	0	6	-14	-5.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	6	4	2	0	+7	+2.5	14
2	Man City	6	4	0	2	+7	+10.9	12
3	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+5	+3.6	10
4	Crystal Palace	6	3	1	2	-2	-2.2	10
5	Man United	5	3	0	2	-1	-1.8	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.2	8
7	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.2	7
8	Brentford	5	2	1	2	+3	+3.4	7
9	Brighton	5	2	1	2	-1	+0.8	7
10	Wolves	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.6	7
11	West Ham	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.5	7
12	Everton	5	2	1	2	-3	-2.0	7
13	Aston Villa	5	2	1	2	-4	-1.8	7
14	Fulham	6	1	3	2	-5	-5.6	6
15	Newcastle	5	1	2	2	+5	+4.3	5
16	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-5	-5.3	4
17	Nott'm Forest	6	1	1	4	-6	-5.6	4
18	Luton	6	1	1	4	-8	-9.3	4
19	Bournemouth	5	0	1	4	-12	-6.2	1
20	Sheffield United	5	0	0	5	-11	-7.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.