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La Liga

Referee: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez

Villarreal

S T U S S

2–3

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 36%

27%

45%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

64%

55%

Both score Ø 55%

82%

27%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

2,14 xG 2,21

58% Possession 42%

17 Shots 17

6 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 3

5 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 18

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 12. · Ath Bilbao 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	12	10	1	1	+14	+5.7	31
2	Real Madrid	11	9	1	1	+15	+9.0	28
3	Barcelona	12	8	3	1	+12	+14.0	27
4	Ath Madrid	11	8	1	2	+15	+9.5	25
5	Betis	12	5	5	2	+1	-0.5	20
6	Sociedad	12	5	4	3	+5	-0.4	19
7	Ath Bilbao	11	5	3	3	+6	+6.2	18
8	Valencia	12	5	3	4	+2	+1.7	18
9	Vallecano	11	4	5	2	-1	+0.2	17
10	Las Palmas	12	5	2	5	-1	-3.0	17
11	Osasuna	12	4	1	7	-6	-4.7	13
12	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	-3	-3.8	12
13	Getafe	11	2	6	3	-3	-4.8	12
14	Alaves	12	3	3	6	-6	+1.3	12
15	Sevilla	11	2	5	4	+1	-4.1	11
16	Cadiz	11	2	4	5	-6	-6.6	10
17	Mallorca	12	1	6	5	-6	-4.2	9
18	Celta	12	1	4	7	-9	-1.0	7
19	Granada	12	1	3	8	-12	-10.3	6
20	Almeria	12	0	3	9	-18	-4.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	6	5	0	1	+9	+6.7	15
2	Girona	6	5	0	1	+7	+2.6	15
3	Ath Madrid	5	5	0	0	+7	+5.7	15
4	Betis	6	4	2	0	+7	+5.0	14
5	Sociedad	7	4	2	1	+6	+0.2	14
6	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+8	+6.8	12
7	Valencia	6	4	0	2	+5	+4.8	12
8	Ath Bilbao	6	3	2	1	+6	+5.7	11
9	Las Palmas	6	3	2	1	+2	-0.9	11
10	Alaves	6	3	1	2	-1	+3.8	10
11	Cadiz	6	2	3	1	+2	+2.8	9
12	Getafe	5	2	3	0	+2	+1.0	9
13	Sevilla	6	2	2	2	+3	+0.0	8
14	Vallecano	5	1	3	1	-5	-1.5	6
15	Granada	6	1	2	3	-4	-4.1	5
16	Mallorca	5	0	4	1	-1	-2.2	4
17	Villarreal	6	1	1	4	-3	-2.5	4
18	Osasuna	6	1	1	4	-5	-0.7	4
19	Celta	7	0	3	4	-7	+0.6	3
20	Almeria	6	0	2	4	-6	+1.6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	6	5	1	0	+7	+3.1	16
2	Real Madrid	7	5	1	1	+7	+2.1	16
3	Barcelona	6	3	3	0	+3	+7.3	12
4	Vallecano	6	3	2	1	+4	+1.7	11
5	Ath Madrid	6	3	1	2	+8	+3.9	10
6	Osasuna	6	3	0	3	-1	-4.0	9
7	Villarreal	5	2	2	1	+0	-1.3	8
8	Ath Bilbao	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.5	7
9	Valencia	6	1	3	2	-3	-3.0	6
10	Las Palmas	6	2	0	4	-3	-2.1	6
11	Betis	6	1	3	2	-6	-5.5	6
12	Sociedad	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.6	5
13	Mallorca	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.0	5
14	Celta	5	1	1	3	-2	-1.6	4
15	Sevilla	5	0	3	2	-2	-4.1	3
16	Getafe	6	0	3	3	-5	-5.8	3
17	Alaves	6	0	2	4	-5	-2.5	2
18	Granada	6	0	1	5	-8	-6.2	1
19	Cadiz	5	0	1	4	-8	-9.4	1
20	Almeria	6	0	1	5	-12	-5.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.