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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Moreirense

S S U T S

1–0

Full-time

Guimaraes

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

1,3

2,5

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 56%

44%

67%

Points per game

1,6

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

56%

67%

Both score Ø 44%

44%

Average goals

2,4

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,9

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,70 xG 0,56

43% Possession 57%

12 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 9

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 12

4 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 8. · Guimaraes 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+13	+11.4	25
2	Sp Lisbon	9	8	1	0	+12	+10.8	25
3	Porto	10	7	1	2	+6	+8.5	22
4	Sp Braga	10	6	2	2	+11	+5.7	20
5	Guimaraes	9	6	1	2	+7	+1.8	19
6	Boavista	9	4	3	2	+3	-3.8	15
7	Famalicao	10	4	3	3	+1	-3.7	15
8	Moreirense	9	4	2	3	+2	-0.7	14
9	Estrela	9	3	2	4	-3	-0.8	11
10	Portimonense	10	3	2	5	-13	-6.2	11
11	Gil Vicente	10	3	1	6	+1	-2.5	10
12	Farense	9	3	1	5	+1	-4.9	10
13	Casa Pia	9	2	4	3	+0	-0.5	10
14	Estoril	10	2	1	7	-5	-5.0	7
15	Chaves	10	2	1	7	-16	-6.0	7
16	Arouca	9	1	3	5	-5	-0.7	6
17	Vizela	9	1	3	5	-6	-1.8	6
18	Rio Ave	9	1	2	6	-9	-1.7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+8	+6.7	15
2	Guimaraes	5	4	0	1	+8	+3.6	12
3	Gil Vicente	5	3	1	1	+8	-0.1	10
4	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+8	+7.6	10
5	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+7	+5.0	10
6	Famalicao	5	3	1	1	+2	-1.6	10
7	Porto	5	3	1	1	+2	+7.9	10
8	Boavista	5	2	2	1	+2	-1.2	8
9	Farense	5	2	1	2	+3	-1.0	7
10	Estrela	5	2	0	3	-2	+0.4	6
11	Estoril	4	1	1	2	+0	-0.6	4
12	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.2	4
13	Chaves	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.6	4
14	Vizela	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.2	4
15	Arouca	5	1	1	3	-3	+1.3	4
16	Rio Ave	5	1	1	3	-4	+1.1	4
17	Portimonense	4	1	1	2	-4	-1.6	4
18	Casa Pia	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	6	5	0	1	+6	+6.4	15
2	Porto	5	4	0	1	+4	+0.6	12
3	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+4	+4.2	10
4	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+3	-1.9	10
5	Moreirense	5	3	1	1	+3	-0.9	10
6	Casa Pia	5	2	2	1	+2	+0.8	8
7	Boavista	4	2	1	1	+1	-2.6	7
8	Guimaraes	4	2	1	1	-1	-1.8	7
9	Portimonense	6	2	1	3	-9	-4.6	7
10	Famalicao	5	1	2	2	-1	-2.1	5
11	Estrela	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.3	5
12	Farense	4	1	0	3	-2	-3.8	3
13	Estoril	6	1	0	5	-5	-4.4	3
14	Chaves	5	1	0	4	-13	-5.3	3
15	Arouca	4	0	2	2	-2	-2.1	2
16	Vizela	4	0	2	2	-3	-2.0	2
17	Rio Ave	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.8	1
18	Gil Vicente	5	0	0	5	-7	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.