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Eredivisie

Referee: Dennis Higler

Ajax

S U U S S

3–0

Full-time

Excelsior

T T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,3

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,2

This season — Eredivisie · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 46%

74%

17%

Points per game

2,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

57%

52%

Both score Ø 46%

43%

48%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

61% Possession 39%

28 Shots 9

13 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 10

7 Corners 0

0 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 2. · Excelsior 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	24	18	5	1	+38	59
2	Ajax	23	17	4	2	+38	55
3	AZ Alkmaar	24	12	4	8	+10	40
4	Vitesse	24	10	7	7	+21	37
5	Feyenoord	23	11	3	9	+9	36
6	Nijmegen	24	10	6	8	+1	36
7	Zwolle	22	10	5	7	+7	35
8	Heracles	22	10	5	7	+1	35
9	Groningen	23	9	7	7	-3	34
10	Den Haag	24	7	9	8	-1	30
11	Heerenveen	24	8	6	10	-11	30
12	Twente	24	8	4	12	-15	28
13	Utrecht	20	7	5	8	+0	26
14	Roda	23	5	9	9	-16	24
15	Willem II	23	4	10	9	-4	22
16	Excelsior	23	4	7	12	-18	19
17	De Graafschap	24	3	5	16	-23	14
18	Cambuur	24	2	7	15	-34	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	9	2	0	+17	29
2	Ajax	11	9	1	1	+24	28
3	Nijmegen	13	8	2	3	+6	26
4	Groningen	12	7	3	2	+8	24
5	Vitesse	12	7	2	3	+17	23
6	AZ Alkmaar	13	7	2	4	+7	23
7	Heracles	11	7	2	2	+7	23
8	Feyenoord	11	7	1	3	+11	22
9	Zwolle	11	6	2	3	+3	20
10	Twente	11	6	1	4	+2	19
11	Heerenveen	12	5	4	3	+1	19
12	Utrecht	8	4	3	1	+4	15
13	Willem II	12	3	6	3	+3	15
14	Roda	13	3	6	4	-4	15
15	Den Haag	12	2	7	3	-2	13
16	De Graafschap	12	2	3	7	-8	9
17	Excelsior	12	2	3	7	-11	9
18	Cambuur	12	1	4	7	-17	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	9	3	1	+21	30
2	Ajax	12	8	3	1	+14	27
3	AZ Alkmaar	11	5	2	4	+3	17
4	Den Haag	12	5	2	5	+1	17
5	Zwolle	11	4	3	4	+4	15
6	Vitesse	12	3	5	4	+4	14
7	Feyenoord	12	4	2	6	-2	14
8	Heracles	11	3	3	5	-6	12
9	Utrecht	12	3	2	7	-4	11
10	Heerenveen	12	3	2	7	-12	11
11	Nijmegen	11	2	4	5	-5	10
12	Excelsior	11	2	4	5	-7	10
13	Groningen	11	2	4	5	-11	10
14	Roda	10	2	3	5	-12	9
15	Twente	13	2	3	8	-17	9
16	Willem II	11	1	4	6	-7	7
17	Cambuur	12	1	3	8	-17	6
18	De Graafschap	12	1	2	9	-15	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.