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Eredivisie

Referee: Bas Nijhuis

Ajax

U T S S S

1–0

Full-time

Heracles

S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,5

This season — Eredivisie · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 53%

72%

34%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 78%

79%

76%

Both score Ø 71%

66%

76%

Average goals

3,7

3,3

Scored

2,7

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,9

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

64% Possession 36%

35 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 0

7 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 7

10 Corners 1

0 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 2. · Heracles 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	30	25	2	3	+45	77
2	Ajax	29	21	4	4	+51	67
3	AZ Alkmaar	30	19	5	6	+27	62
4	Feyenoord	30	16	6	8	+28	54
5	Zwolle	30	12	7	11	-3	43
6	Utrecht	26	11	8	7	+0	41
7	Heerenveen	28	10	9	9	-3	39
8	Vitesse	26	10	8	8	+8	38
9	Excelsior	30	11	5	14	-10	38
10	Den Haag	28	10	7	11	-7	37
11	Heracles	29	10	7	12	-13	37
12	VVV Venlo	30	7	13	10	-10	34
13	Groningen	30	6	12	12	-5	30
14	Willem II	30	8	6	16	-11	30
15	NAC Breda	30	8	6	16	-17	30
16	Roda	30	7	5	18	-28	26
17	Sparta Rotterdam	30	6	6	18	-30	24
18	Twente	30	4	8	18	-22	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	14	1	0	+32	43
2	Ajax	14	11	1	2	+26	34
3	Feyenoord	15	9	3	3	+16	30
4	Heracles	15	9	3	3	+7	30
5	AZ Alkmaar	15	9	2	4	+10	29
6	Zwolle	15	8	3	4	+8	27
7	Utrecht	13	6	6	1	+4	24
8	Groningen	15	5	7	3	+6	22
9	Willem II	15	6	3	6	+6	21
10	Heerenveen	14	5	4	5	-4	19
11	NAC Breda	15	6	1	8	-7	19
12	Den Haag	14	5	3	6	-3	18
13	Vitesse	13	4	5	4	+1	17
14	Sparta Rotterdam	15	5	2	8	-13	17
15	VVV Venlo	15	3	6	6	-5	15
16	Roda	15	4	3	8	-12	15
17	Twente	15	3	5	7	-8	14
18	Excelsior	15	3	4	8	-7	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	11	1	3	+13	34
2	Ajax	15	10	3	2	+25	33
3	AZ Alkmaar	15	10	3	2	+17	33
4	Excelsior	15	8	1	6	-3	25
5	Feyenoord	15	7	3	5	+12	24
6	Vitesse	13	6	3	4	+7	21
7	Heerenveen	14	5	5	4	+1	20
8	Den Haag	14	5	4	5	-4	19
9	VVV Venlo	15	4	7	4	-5	19
10	Utrecht	13	5	2	6	-4	17
11	Zwolle	15	4	4	7	-11	16
12	NAC Breda	15	2	5	8	-10	11
13	Roda	15	3	2	10	-16	11
14	Willem II	15	2	3	10	-17	9
15	Groningen	15	1	5	9	-11	8
16	Sparta Rotterdam	15	1	4	10	-17	7
17	Heracles	14	1	4	9	-20	7
18	Twente	15	1	3	11	-14	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.