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Eredivisie

Referee: Kevin Blom

Excelsior

T U T S T

0–2

Full-time

Ajax

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

20%

80%

Points per game

0,8

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

60%

80%

Both score Ø 20%

20%

Average goals

2,6

3,2

Scored

1,0

2,8

Conceded

1,6

0,4

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+2,4

This season — Eredivisie · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

20%

80%

Points per game

0,8

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

60%

80%

Both score Ø 20%

20%

Average goals

2,6

3,2

Scored

1,0

2,8

Conceded

1,6

0,4

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+2,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

41% Possession 59%

6 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 0

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 15. · Ajax 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Heracles	6	5	0	1	+10	15
2	Zwolle	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Ajax	5	4	1	0	+12	13
4	Feyenoord	6	4	1	1	+4	13
5	PSV Eindhoven	6	3	2	1	+9	11
6	Roda	6	3	2	1	+1	11
7	Nijmegen	6	3	1	2	-1	10
8	Utrecht	6	2	2	2	+0	8
9	Vitesse	5	2	1	2	+3	7
10	Groningen	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Heerenveen	6	1	3	2	-2	6
12	AZ Alkmaar	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	Den Haag	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	Willem II	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Excelsior	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Twente	6	0	3	3	-6	3
17	Cambuur	6	0	2	4	-16	2
18	De Graafschap	5	0	0	5	-11	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Zwolle	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Heracles	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Feyenoord	3	3	0	0	+4	9
4	Roda	4	2	2	0	+3	8
5	Groningen	3	2	1	0	+4	7
6	Utrecht	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+7	6
8	Vitesse	2	2	0	0	+6	6
9	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+4	6
10	Nijmegen	3	2	0	1	+1	6
11	Heerenveen	3	1	2	0	+2	5
12	Excelsior	2	1	1	0	+3	4
13	Willem II	3	1	1	1	+1	4
14	Den Haag	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Twente	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	AZ Alkmaar	3	0	1	2	-4	1
17	Cambuur	4	0	1	3	-13	1
18	De Graafschap	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Heracles	3	2	0	1	+4	6
3	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	2	1	+5	5
4	Zwolle	2	1	1	0	+3	4
5	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Feyenoord	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Nijmegen	3	1	1	1	-2	4
8	Den Haag	3	1	0	2	-2	3
9	Roda	2	1	0	1	-2	3
10	Twente	4	0	2	2	-3	2
11	Utrecht	3	0	1	2	-3	1
12	Cambuur	2	0	1	1	-3	1
13	Vitesse	3	0	1	2	-3	1
14	Heerenveen	3	0	1	2	-4	1
15	Willem II	3	0	1	2	-4	1
16	Groningen	2	0	0	2	-4	0
17	De Graafschap	3	0	0	3	-6	0
18	Excelsior	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.