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Championship

Referee: Tim Robinson

Millwall

S S U T T

1–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,2

This season — Championship · 45/42 matches

Win Ø 46%

40%

52%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

38%

50%

Both score Ø 44%

42%

45%

Average goals

2,2

2,6

Scored

1,2

1,6

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

40% Possession 60%

13 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 8. · Aston Villa 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	45	30	9	6	+46	99
2	Cardiff	45	27	8	10	+30	89
3	Fulham	42	24	12	6	+35	84
4	Aston Villa	42	22	10	10	+29	76
5	Middlesbrough	43	22	8	13	+23	74
6	Derby	43	19	14	10	+20	71
7	Preston	45	18	16	11	+10	70
8	Millwall	45	18	15	12	+10	69
9	Brentford	45	18	14	13	+10	68
10	Bristol City	45	17	16	12	+10	67
11	Sheffield United	45	19	9	17	+6	66
12	Norwich	45	15	15	15	-7	60
13	Ipswich	45	17	8	20	-3	59
14	Leeds	45	16	9	20	-7	57
15	QPR	45	15	11	19	-10	56
16	Sheffield Weds	45	13	15	17	-5	54
17	Nott'm Forest	45	15	8	22	-13	53
18	Hull	45	11	15	19	+0	48
19	Reading	45	10	13	22	-22	43
20	Birmingham	45	12	7	26	-32	43
21	Barnsley	45	9	14	22	-21	41
22	Burton Albion	45	10	11	24	-42	41
23	Bolton	45	9	13	23	-36	40
24	Sunderland	45	6	16	23	-31	34

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	23	16	5	2	+29	53
2	Cardiff	22	16	3	3	+24	51
3	Fulham	22	13	7	2	+23	46
4	Aston Villa	21	13	6	2	+22	45
5	Middlesbrough	22	14	3	5	+17	45
6	Sheffield United	23	12	5	6	+13	41
7	QPR	23	12	5	6	+7	41
8	Millwall	22	11	7	4	+11	40
9	Bristol City	22	11	6	5	+14	39
10	Derby	21	11	5	5	+17	38
11	Brentford	22	9	10	3	+13	37
12	Leeds	22	9	6	7	+3	33
13	Nott'm Forest	23	10	3	10	-2	33
14	Preston	22	8	8	6	+4	32
15	Ipswich	22	9	5	8	+2	32
16	Norwich	23	8	8	7	+0	32
17	Birmingham	22	9	3	10	-5	30
18	Hull	23	7	8	8	+9	29
19	Sheffield Weds	22	7	7	8	+2	28
20	Bolton	22	8	4	10	-9	28
21	Barnsley	23	5	9	9	-7	24
22	Reading	23	5	8	10	-10	23
23	Burton Albion	23	4	5	14	-24	17
24	Sunderland	22	2	7	13	-19	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	22	14	4	4	+17	46
2	Fulham	20	11	5	4	+12	38
3	Preston	23	10	8	5	+6	38
4	Cardiff	23	11	5	7	+6	38
5	Derby	22	8	9	5	+3	33
6	Aston Villa	21	9	4	8	+7	31
7	Brentford	23	9	4	10	-3	31
8	Middlesbrough	21	8	5	8	+6	29
9	Millwall	23	7	8	8	-1	29
10	Bristol City	23	6	10	7	-4	28
11	Norwich	22	7	7	8	-7	28
12	Ipswich	23	8	3	12	-5	27
13	Sheffield Weds	23	6	8	9	-7	26
14	Sheffield United	22	7	4	11	-7	25
15	Leeds	23	7	3	13	-10	24
16	Burton Albion	22	6	6	10	-18	24
17	Sunderland	23	4	9	10	-12	21
18	Nott'm Forest	22	5	5	12	-11	20
19	Reading	22	5	5	12	-12	20
20	Hull	22	4	7	11	-9	19
21	Barnsley	22	4	5	13	-14	17
22	QPR	22	3	6	13	-17	15
23	Birmingham	23	3	4	16	-27	13
24	Bolton	23	1	9	13	-27	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.