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Premier League

Referee: Andre Marriner

Arsenal

S S T S T

5–0

Full-time

Burnley

S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,7

2,3

Scored

2,5

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 35/36 matches

Win Ø 44%

49%

39%

Points per game

1,6

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

69%

33%

Both score Ø 51%

57%

44%

Average goals

3,3

1,9

Scored

1,9

1,0

Conceded

1,4

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

63% Possession 37%

16 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

6 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 6. · Burnley 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	36	30	4	2	+76	94
2	Man United	36	24	5	7	+39	77
3	Liverpool	36	20	12	4	+43	72
4	Tottenham	36	21	8	7	+36	71
5	Chelsea	35	20	6	9	+26	66
6	Arsenal	35	17	6	12	+19	57
7	Burnley	36	14	12	10	+3	54
8	Everton	37	13	10	14	-12	49
9	Leicester	36	11	11	14	-5	44
10	Newcastle	36	11	8	17	-10	41
11	Crystal Palace	37	10	11	16	-12	41
12	Bournemouth	37	10	11	16	-17	41
13	Watford	37	11	8	18	-19	41
14	Brighton	36	9	13	14	-14	40
15	West Ham	36	9	11	16	-22	38
16	Huddersfield	36	9	9	18	-29	36
17	Southampton	36	6	15	15	-19	33
18	Swansea	36	8	9	19	-26	33
19	West Brom	37	6	13	18	-23	31
20	Stoke	37	6	12	19	-34	30

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	15	2	1	+45	47
2	Arsenal	18	14	2	2	+29	44
3	Man United	18	14	2	2	+28	44
4	Liverpool	18	11	7	0	+31	40
5	Tottenham	17	11	4	2	+22	37
6	Everton	19	10	4	5	+6	34
7	Chelsea	17	10	3	4	+13	33
8	Brighton	19	7	8	4	-1	29
9	Watford	19	7	6	6	-4	27
10	Burnley	18	7	5	6	+0	26
11	Bournemouth	19	7	5	7	-4	26
12	Newcastle	18	7	4	7	+1	25
13	Leicester	18	6	6	6	+1	24
14	Crystal Palace	18	6	5	7	+0	23
15	West Ham	17	6	5	6	-4	23
16	Huddersfield	18	6	5	7	-8	23
17	Swansea	17	6	3	8	-5	21
18	Stoke	19	5	5	9	-10	20
19	Southampton	18	4	7	7	-5	19
20	West Brom	19	3	9	7	-8	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	15	2	1	+31	47
2	Tottenham	19	10	4	5	+14	34
3	Chelsea	18	10	3	5	+13	33
4	Man United	18	10	3	5	+11	33
5	Liverpool	18	9	5	4	+12	32
6	Burnley	18	7	7	4	+3	28
7	Leicester	18	5	5	8	-6	20
8	Crystal Palace	19	4	6	9	-12	18
9	Newcastle	18	4	4	10	-11	16
10	Bournemouth	18	3	6	9	-13	15
11	West Ham	19	3	6	10	-18	15
12	Everton	18	3	6	9	-18	15
13	Southampton	18	2	8	8	-14	14
14	Watford	18	4	2	12	-15	14
15	Arsenal	17	3	4	10	-10	13
16	West Brom	18	3	4	11	-15	13
17	Huddersfield	18	3	4	11	-21	13
18	Swansea	19	2	6	11	-21	12
19	Brighton	17	2	5	10	-13	11
20	Stoke	18	1	7	10	-24	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.