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Eredivisie

Referee: Danny Desmond Makkelie

Ajax

S S S S U

1–0

Full-time

Excelsior

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

2,3

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-1,0

This season — Eredivisie · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 50%

70%

30%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

3,2

2,9

Scored

2,3

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

68% Possession 32%

26 Shots 5

9 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 8

8 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 3. · Excelsior 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	10	9	1	0	+22	28
2	PSV Eindhoven	11	7	3	1	+14	24
3	Ajax	10	7	2	1	+14	23
4	Heerenveen	9	6	2	1	+13	20
5	Twente	11	5	3	3	+4	18
6	Vitesse	11	4	3	4	+2	15
7	AZ Alkmaar	8	3	4	1	+5	13
8	Sparta Rotterdam	11	3	4	4	-1	13
9	Utrecht	8	3	2	3	+0	11
10	Den Haag	10	3	2	5	-6	11
11	Excelsior	10	3	1	6	-7	10
12	Nijmegen	10	2	4	4	-7	10
13	Willem II	11	2	4	5	-8	10
14	Heracles	11	1	6	4	-5	9
15	Zwolle	10	2	3	5	-11	9
16	Go Ahead Eagles	10	2	2	6	-9	8
17	Roda	11	1	5	5	-11	8
18	Groningen	10	1	3	6	-9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	5	4	1	0	+12	13
2	Twente	6	3	2	1	+5	11
3	Ajax	5	3	1	1	+5	10
4	Heerenveen	4	3	1	0	+5	10
5	AZ Alkmaar	5	2	3	0	+4	9
6	Sparta Rotterdam	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	PSV Eindhoven	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Go Ahead Eagles	5	2	1	2	+0	7
9	Vitesse	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	Utrecht	4	2	0	2	+0	6
11	Excelsior	6	2	0	4	-2	6
12	Nijmegen	6	1	3	2	-4	6
13	Heracles	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Willem II	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Den Haag	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-8	4
17	Roda	5	0	2	3	-5	2
18	Groningen	5	0	2	3	-9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	5	1	0	+13	16
2	Feyenoord	5	5	0	0	+10	15
3	Ajax	5	4	1	0	+9	13
4	Heerenveen	5	3	1	1	+8	10
5	Vitesse	6	2	2	2	+2	8
6	Twente	5	2	1	2	-1	7
7	Den Haag	6	2	1	3	-4	7
8	Roda	6	1	3	2	-6	6
9	Utrecht	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Sparta Rotterdam	6	1	2	3	-2	5
11	Zwolle	5	1	2	2	-3	5
12	Willem II	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	AZ Alkmaar	3	1	1	1	+1	4
14	Groningen	5	1	1	3	+0	4
15	Nijmegen	4	1	1	2	-3	4
16	Heracles	6	0	4	2	-4	4
17	Excelsior	4	1	1	2	-5	4
18	Go Ahead Eagles	5	0	1	4	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.