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Bundesliga
Referee: Deniz Aytekin
Dortmund
T S U T T
4–1
Full-time
RB Leipzig
U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund RB Leipzig
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
3,0
5,0
Scored
1,7
2,3
Conceded
1,3
2,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

46% Possession 54%
10 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 7
3 Blocked shots 1
6 Goalkeeper saves 2
7 Corners 9
4 Offside 4
9 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 1 1 0 0 +2 3
2 Ein Frankfurt 1 1 0 0 +2 3
3 M'gladbach 1 1 0 0 +2 3
4 Augsburg 1 1 0 0 +1 3
5 Wolfsburg 1 1 0 0 +1 3
6 Hertha 1 1 0 0 +1 3
7 Mainz 1 1 0 0 +1 3
8 Werder Bremen 1 0 1 0 +0 1
9 Hannover 1 0 1 0 +0 1
10 Fortuna Dusseldorf 1 0 0 1 -1 0
11 Schalke 04 1 0 0 1 -1 0
12 Nurnberg 1 0 0 1 -1 0
13 Stuttgart 1 0 0 1 -1 0
14 Hoffenheim 1 0 0 1 -2 0
15 Freiburg 1 0 0 1 -2 0
16 Leverkusen 1 0 0 1 -2 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Dortmund RB Leipzig
1′
J. Augustin 0–1
7′
🟨 Dayot Upamecano
1–1 M. Dahoud
M. Schmelzer
21′
23′
🟨 Marcelo Saracchi
1–2 M. Sabitzer
own goal
40′
2–2 A. Witsel
43′
Half-time 2–2
46′
🔁 T. Werner
↦ M. Sabitzer
Abdou Diallo 🟨
68′
M. Wolf 🔁
↦ M. Philipp
70′
72′
🔁 Matheus Cunha
↦ J. Augustin
Mahmoud Dahoud 🟨
75′
J. Sancho 🔁
↦ C. Pulisic
77′
85′
🔁 Bruma
↦ D. Demme
Raphaël Guerreiro 🔁
↦ M. Schmelzer
87′
3–2 M. Reus
J. Sancho
91′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Dortmund

4-3-3
1 R. Bürki G
26 Ł. Piszczek D
29 M. Schmelzer D
4 A. Diallo D
16 M. Akanji D
28 A. Witsel M
6 T. Delaney M
19 M. Dahoud M
22 C. Pulisic M
11 M. Reus M
20 M. Philipp F
Bench (7)
27 M. Wolf
7 J. Sancho
13 Raphaël Guerreiro
2 D. Zagadou
5 A. Hakimi
10 M. Götze
35 M. Hitz

Coach: L. Favre

RB Leipzig

4-2-2-2
1 P. Gulácsi G
16 L. Klostermann D
5 D. Upamecano D
6 I. Konaté D
10 E. Forsberg M
44 K. Kampl M
31 D. Demme M
7 M. Sabitzer M
3 M. Saracchi D
9 Y. Poulsen F
29 J. Augustin F
Bench (7)
11 T. Werner
20 Matheus Cunha
17 Bruma
4 W. Orban
13 S. Ilsanker
21 M. Müller
27 K. Laimer

Coach: R. Rangnick

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Deniz Aytekin · 80 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.