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Primeira Liga

Referee: Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira

Vitoria Setubal

T T S S T

1–2

Full-time

Nacional

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,8

2,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,5

4,5

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,0

3,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

59% Possession 41%

11 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 2

3 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 26

5 Yellow cards 5

2 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 7. · Nacional 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+3	7
2	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Porto	3	2	0	1	+5	6
4	Feirense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Maritimo	3	2	0	1	+0	6
6	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Vitoria Setubal	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Boavista	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Chaves	3	1	0	2	-4	3
14	Santa Clara	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Aves	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Portimonense	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Maritimo	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Porto	2	1	0	1	+4	3
4	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Feirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Aves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	Belenenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+2	4
2	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Porto	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Feirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Tondela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Santa Clara	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Vitoria Setubal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-2	0
14	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
16	Aves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.