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Bundesliga
Referee: Wolfgang Stark
RB Leipzig
U
1–0
Full-time
Dortmund
S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Dortmund
Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
0%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
4,0
3,3
Scored
2,0
2,5
Conceded
2,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,7
This season — Bundesliga · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
1,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
4,0
3,0
Scored
2,0
2,0
Conceded
2,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

34% Possession 66%
10 Shots 8
4 Shots on target 1
1 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 7
3 Offside 2
16 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match RB Leipzig 12. · Dortmund 7. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 2 2 0 0 +8 6
2 Hertha 2 2 0 0 +3 6
3 Wolfsburg 2 1 1 0 +2 4
4 FC Koln 2 1 1 0 +2 4
5 Freiburg 2 1 0 1 +1 3
6 Leverkusen 2 1 0 1 +1 3
7 Dortmund 1 1 0 0 +1 3
8 Ein Frankfurt 2 1 0 1 +0 3
9 M'gladbach 2 1 0 1 -1 3
10 Darmstadt 2 1 0 1 -1 3
11 Hoffenheim 1 0 1 0 +0 1
12 RB Leipzig 1 0 1 0 +0 1
13 Hamburg 2 0 1 1 -2 1
14 FC Ingolstadt 04 2 0 1 1 -2 1
15 Mainz 1 0 0 1 -1 0
16 Augsburg 1 0 0 1 -2 0
17 Schalke 04 2 0 0 2 -3 0
18 Werder Bremen 1 0 0 1 -6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

RB Leipzig Dortmund
40′
🟨 Gonzalo Castro
Half-time 0–0
Willi Orbán 🟨
48′
Timo Werner 🟨
54′
59′
🟨 Marc Bartra
E. Forsberg 🔁
↦ M. Sabitzer
64′
O. Burke 🔁
↦ Y. Poulsen
69′
71′
🔁 O. Dembélé
↦ G. Castro
71′
🔁 Raphaël Guerreiro
↦ M. Götze
N. Keïta 🔁
↦ D. Kaiser
84′
85′
🔁 A. Ramos
↦ P. Aubameyang
1–0 N. Keïta ⚽
O. Burke
89′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

RB Leipzig

4-2-2-2
32 P. Gulácsi G
33 M. Compper D
23 M. Halstenberg D
4 W. Orban D
16 L. Klostermann D
13 S. Ilsanker M
31 D. Demme M
24 D. Kaiser M
7 M. Sabitzer M
9 Y. Poulsen F
11 T. Werner F
Bench (7)
10 E. Forsberg
19 O. Burke
8 N. Keïta
1 F. Coltorti
5 K. Papadopoulos
20 B. Schmitz
27 D. Selke

Coach: R. Hasenhüttl

Dortmund

4-2-3-1
38 R. Bürki G
26 Ł. Piszczek D
25 S. Papastathopoulos D
29 M. Schmelzer D
5 Bartra D
18 S. Rode M
27 G. Castro M
10 M. Götze M
21 A. Schürrle M
33 J. Weigl M
17 P. Aubameyang F
Bench (7)
7 O. Dembélé
13 Raphaël Guerreiro
20 A. Ramos
1 R. Weidenfeller
22 C. Pulisic
28 M. Ginter
30 F. Passlack

Coach: T. Tuchel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Wolfgang Stark · 35 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
13,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.