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Bundesliga

Referee: Felix Brych

RB Leipzig

U S S T T

1–1

Full-time

Dortmund

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,7

This season — Bundesliga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 46%

46%

Points per game

1,6

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

58%

63%

Both score Ø 63%

63%

Average goals

2,9

3,3

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

49% Possession 51%

11 Shots 4

3 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 3

3 Offside 8

19 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 6. · Dortmund 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	24	19	3	2	+37	60
2	Schalke 04	25	12	7	6	+9	43
3	Ein Frankfurt	25	12	6	7	+6	42
4	Dortmund	24	11	8	5	+19	41
5	Leverkusen	25	11	8	6	+12	41
6	RB Leipzig	24	11	5	8	+4	38
7	Hoffenheim	25	9	8	8	+2	35
8	M'gladbach	25	10	5	10	-4	35
9	Augsburg	25	8	8	9	+1	32
10	Hannover	25	8	8	9	-3	32
11	Hertha	25	7	10	8	-1	31
12	Stuttgart	24	9	3	12	-7	30
13	Freiburg	24	6	11	7	-13	29
14	Werder Bremen	25	6	9	10	-6	27
15	Wolfsburg	25	4	13	8	-5	25
16	Mainz	25	6	7	12	-13	25
17	Hamburg	25	4	6	15	-17	18
18	FC Koln	24	4	5	15	-21	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	10	2	0	+25	32
2	Schalke 04	13	7	4	2	+7	25
3	Stuttgart	12	8	1	3	+5	25
4	RB Leipzig	12	7	3	2	+10	24
5	Hoffenheim	12	6	4	2	+7	22
6	Hannover	12	6	3	3	+6	21
7	Ein Frankfurt	13	6	3	4	+4	21
8	Freiburg	12	5	6	1	+4	21
9	M'gladbach	13	6	3	4	+2	21
10	Dortmund	12	5	4	3	+11	19
11	Leverkusen	12	5	4	3	+5	19
12	Augsburg	13	5	4	4	+4	19
13	Mainz	12	5	2	5	-2	17
14	Werder Bremen	12	4	4	4	+0	16
15	Hertha	12	4	4	4	-1	16
16	Wolfsburg	13	2	7	4	-2	13
17	Hamburg	13	3	4	6	-4	13
18	FC Koln	12	2	3	7	-9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	9	1	2	+12	28
2	Dortmund	12	6	4	2	+8	22
3	Leverkusen	13	6	4	3	+7	22
4	Ein Frankfurt	12	6	3	3	+2	21
5	Schalke 04	12	5	3	4	+2	18
6	Hertha	13	3	6	4	+0	15
7	M'gladbach	12	4	2	6	-6	14
8	RB Leipzig	12	4	2	6	-6	14
9	Augsburg	12	3	4	5	-3	13
10	Hoffenheim	13	3	4	6	-5	13
11	Wolfsburg	12	2	6	4	-3	12
12	Werder Bremen	13	2	5	6	-6	11
13	Hannover	13	2	5	6	-9	11
14	Mainz	13	1	5	7	-11	8
15	FC Koln	12	2	2	8	-12	8
16	Freiburg	12	1	5	6	-17	8
17	Stuttgart	12	1	2	9	-12	5
18	Hamburg	12	1	2	9	-13	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.