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Bundesliga

Referee: Manuel Gräfe

Hoffenheim

U S S S T

3–1

Full-time

Dortmund

S T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,8

3,3

Scored

2,8

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 44%

42%

45%

Points per game

1,6

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

55%

61%

Both score Ø 60%

61%

58%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

1,9

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

13 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

2 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 7

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 4. · Dortmund 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	33	27	3	3	+67	84
2	Schalke 04	33	17	9	7	+15	60
3	Dortmund	33	15	10	8	+19	55
4	Hoffenheim	33	14	10	9	+16	52
5	Leverkusen	33	14	10	9	+13	52
6	RB Leipzig	33	14	8	11	+0	50
7	Ein Frankfurt	33	14	7	12	+1	49
8	Stuttgart	33	14	6	13	-3	48
9	M'gladbach	33	13	8	12	-4	47
10	Hertha	33	10	13	10	+1	43
11	Augsburg	33	10	11	12	-1	41
12	Werder Bremen	33	9	12	12	-4	39
13	Hannover	33	10	9	14	-9	39
14	Mainz	33	9	9	15	-13	36
15	Freiburg	33	7	12	14	-26	33
16	Wolfsburg	33	5	15	13	-15	30
17	Hamburg	33	7	7	19	-25	28
18	FC Koln	33	5	7	21	-32	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	14	2	0	+44	44
2	Hoffenheim	16	10	4	2	+20	34
3	Stuttgart	17	10	4	3	+9	34
4	Schalke 04	16	9	5	2	+11	32
5	Dortmund	17	9	4	4	+19	31
6	RB Leipzig	17	9	4	4	+8	31
7	M'gladbach	17	9	4	4	+8	31
8	Ein Frankfurt	17	8	4	5	+7	28
9	Hannover	17	8	3	6	+3	27
10	Leverkusen	16	7	5	4	+9	26
11	Werder Bremen	17	6	7	4	+3	25
12	Mainz	16	7	3	6	+2	24
13	Freiburg	16	6	6	4	-2	24
14	Augsburg	17	6	4	7	+0	22
15	Hertha	16	5	7	4	+0	22
16	Hamburg	16	5	4	7	-3	19
17	Wolfsburg	16	2	8	6	-5	14
18	FC Koln	17	3	5	9	-10	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	13	1	3	+23	40
2	Schalke 04	17	8	4	5	+4	28
3	Leverkusen	17	7	5	5	+4	26
4	Dortmund	16	6	6	4	+0	24
5	Hertha	17	5	6	6	+1	21
6	Ein Frankfurt	16	6	3	7	-6	21
7	Augsburg	16	4	7	5	-1	19
8	RB Leipzig	16	5	4	7	-8	19
9	Hoffenheim	17	4	6	7	-4	18
10	Wolfsburg	17	3	7	7	-10	16
11	M'gladbach	16	4	4	8	-12	16
12	Werder Bremen	16	3	5	8	-7	14
13	Stuttgart	16	4	2	10	-12	14
14	Hannover	16	2	6	8	-12	12
15	Mainz	17	2	6	9	-15	12
16	Hamburg	17	2	3	12	-22	9
17	Freiburg	17	1	6	10	-24	9
18	FC Koln	16	2	2	12	-22	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.