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Championship

Referee: Peter Bankes

Rotherham

S T T S T

1–0

Full-time

Derby

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rotherham Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,5

This season — Championship · 6/5 matches

Win Ø 57%

33%

80%

Points per game

1,0

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

33%

60%

Both score Ø 47%

33%

60%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

36% Possession 64%

17 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Rotherham 15. · Derby 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	6	4	2	0	+7	14
2	Derby	5	4	0	1	+5	12
3	Sheffield United	6	4	0	2	+4	12
4	Leeds	5	3	2	0	+7	11
5	West Brom	7	3	2	2	+6	11
6	Brentford	6	3	2	1	+6	11
7	Bristol City	6	3	2	1	+5	11
8	Swansea	6	3	2	1	+2	11
9	Bolton	6	3	2	1	+0	11
10	Wigan	6	3	1	2	+3	10
11	Sheffield Weds	6	3	1	2	+0	10
12	Aston Villa	6	2	3	1	+0	9
13	Blackburn	6	2	3	1	-1	9
14	Nott'm Forest	6	1	4	1	+0	7
15	Rotherham	6	2	0	4	-6	6
16	Millwall	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Birmingham	7	0	5	2	-2	5
18	Norwich	6	1	2	3	-3	5
19	Stoke	6	1	2	3	-4	5
20	Preston	6	1	2	3	-4	5
21	Hull	6	1	1	4	-5	4
22	QPR	6	1	1	4	-10	4
23	Ipswich	6	0	3	3	-4	3
24	Reading	6	0	2	4	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brentford	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Middlesbrough	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Leeds	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Wigan	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Sheffield Weds	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+6	6
7	Derby	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Sheffield United	3	2	0	1	+3	6
9	Rotherham	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Aston Villa	3	1	2	0	+1	5
11	Preston	3	1	2	0	+1	5
12	Nott'm Forest	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Blackburn	3	1	2	0	+1	5
14	Bristol City	3	1	1	1	+1	4
15	Millwall	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Birmingham	4	0	4	0	+0	4
17	Swansea	3	1	1	1	+0	4
18	Stoke	3	1	1	1	-1	4
19	Bolton	3	1	1	1	-2	4
20	Ipswich	3	0	3	0	+0	3
21	Norwich	3	1	0	2	-2	3
22	QPR	3	1	0	2	-3	3
23	Reading	3	0	0	3	-3	0
24	Hull	3	0	0	3	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Bolton	3	2	1	0	+2	7
3	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Derby	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Sheffield United	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Middlesbrough	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	West Brom	4	1	2	1	+0	5
8	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+3	4
9	Aston Villa	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Hull	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Blackburn	3	1	1	1	-2	4
12	Wigan	3	1	0	2	+1	3
13	Sheffield Weds	3	1	0	2	-2	3
14	Norwich	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Nott'm Forest	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Brentford	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Reading	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Birmingham	3	0	1	2	-2	1
19	Millwall	3	0	1	2	-2	1
20	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-3	1
21	QPR	3	0	1	2	-7	1
22	Ipswich	3	0	0	3	-4	0
23	Preston	3	0	0	3	-5	0
24	Rotherham	3	0	0	3	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.