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Bundesliga
Referee: Tobias Stieler
Fortuna Dusseldorf
T U
2–1
Full-time
Hoffenheim
S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fortuna Dusseldorf Hoffenheim
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
0%
67%
Points per game
0,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 92%
100%
83%
Average goals
2,5
4,2
Scored
1,0
2,5
Conceded
1,5
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,8
This season — Bundesliga · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
2,5
4,0
Scored
1,0
2,0
Conceded
1,5
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

32% Possession 68%
8 Shots 19
4 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
0 Corners 9
2 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 21
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Fortuna Dusseldorf 12. · Hoffenheim 9. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Dortmund 3 2 1 0 +5 7
2 Bayern Munich 2 2 0 0 +5 6
3 Wolfsburg 2 2 0 0 +3 6
4 Hertha 2 2 0 0 +3 6
5 M'gladbach 2 1 1 0 +2 4
6 Augsburg 2 1 1 0 +1 4
7 Werder Bremen 2 1 1 0 +1 4
8 Mainz 2 1 1 0 +1 4
9 Hoffenheim 2 1 0 1 +0 3
10 Ein Frankfurt 3 1 0 2 -1 3
11 Hannover 2 0 2 0 +0 2
12 Fortuna Dusseldorf 2 0 1 1 -1 1
13 Nurnberg 2 0 1 1 -1 1
14 RB Leipzig 2 0 1 1 -3 1
15 Schalke 04 2 0 0 2 -3 0
16 Freiburg 2 0 0 2 -4 0
17 Leverkusen 2 0 0 2 -4 0
18 Stuttgart 2 0 0 2 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Fortuna Dusseldorf Hoffenheim
Rouwen Hennings 🟨
22′
1–0 A. Morales ⚽
J. Zimmer
45′
Half-time 1–0
54′
🟨 Pavel Kadeřábek
57′
🔁 I. Belfodil
↦ Joelinton
R. Bormuth 🔁
↦ K. Ayhan
59′
62′
🟨 Ishak Belfodil
63′
🔁 S. Zuber
↦ L. Bittencourt
D. Lukebakio 🔁
↦ R. Hennings
67′
72′
🔁 R. Nelson
↦ S. Posch
K. Karaman 🔁
↦ M. Ducksch
79′
86′
⚽ R. Nelson 1–1
2–1 D. Lukebakio ⚽
88′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Fortuna Dusseldorf

5-3-2
1 M. Rensing G
13 A. Bodzek M
35 M. Kamiński D
23 N. Gießelmann D
5 K. Ayhan D
6 A. Morales M
25 M. Zimmermann M
39 J. Zimmer M
31 M. Sobottka M
28 R. Hennings F
10 M. Ducksch F
Bench (7)
32 R. Bormuth
20 D. Lukebakio
11 K. Karaman
9 B. Raman
22 K. Stöger
30 R. Wolf
33 T. Usami

Coach: F. Funkel

Hoffenheim

3-5-2
1 O. Baumann G
6 H. Nordtveit D
22 K. Vogt D
3 P. Kadeřábek M
38 S. Posch D
16 N. Schulz M
13 L. Bittencourt M
11 F. Grillitsch M
28 Á. Szalai F
27 A. Kramarić F
34 Joelinton F
Bench (7)
19 I. Belfodil
17 S. Zuber
9 R. Nelson
2 J. Brenet
23 Felipe Pires
24 J. Hoogma
36 G. Kobel

Coach: J. Nagelsmann

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Tobias Stieler · 91 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.