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Championship

Referee: Scott Duncan

Derby

S S S U S

3–0

Full-time

Rotherham

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Rotherham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

This season — Championship · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 31%

46%

15%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

38%

69%

Both score Ø 74%

62%

85%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

56% Possession 44%

16 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 0

2 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 5. · Rotherham 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	13	8	5	0	+8	29
2	Hull	13	7	4	2	+11	25
3	Burnley	13	7	4	2	+6	25
4	Middlesbrough	13	7	3	3	+11	24
5	Derby	13	6	6	1	+8	24
6	Birmingham	14	7	3	4	+4	24
7	Reading	13	6	4	3	+8	22
8	Cardiff	13	5	6	2	+4	21
9	Sheffield Weds	13	5	5	3	+2	20
10	Brentford	14	6	2	6	+0	20
11	QPR	14	5	4	5	-1	19
12	Wolves	14	5	3	6	+0	18
13	Fulham	13	4	5	4	+3	17
14	Ipswich	13	4	5	4	-5	17
15	Blackburn	14	3	6	5	+0	15
16	Huddersfield	13	3	5	5	-3	14
17	Nott'm Forest	13	3	5	5	-3	14
18	Leeds	14	2	7	5	-7	13
19	Preston	13	2	6	5	-3	12
20	Bristol City	13	2	5	6	-7	11
21	Milton Keynes Dons	13	3	2	8	-7	11
22	Charlton	13	2	4	7	-10	10
23	Rotherham	13	2	3	8	-9	9
24	Bolton	13	1	6	6	-10	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	7	5	2	0	+10	17
2	Brighton	7	5	2	0	+5	17
3	Cardiff	7	4	2	1	+4	14
4	Middlesbrough	6	4	1	1	+9	13
5	Burnley	6	4	1	1	+5	13
6	QPR	7	3	3	1	+5	12
7	Reading	6	3	2	1	+6	11
8	Fulham	7	3	2	2	+3	11
9	Sheffield Weds	6	3	2	1	+3	11
10	Birmingham	7	3	1	3	-1	10
11	Brentford	7	3	1	3	-2	10
12	Huddersfield	7	2	3	2	+3	9
13	Derby	6	2	3	1	+3	9
14	Blackburn	7	2	3	2	+3	9
15	Ipswich	6	2	3	1	+2	9
16	Bolton	7	1	5	1	+0	8
17	Wolves	7	2	2	3	-1	8
18	Charlton	7	2	2	3	-4	8
19	Nott'm Forest	7	1	3	3	-2	6
20	Milton Keynes Dons	6	2	0	4	-2	6
21	Bristol City	6	1	2	3	-3	5
22	Rotherham	7	1	2	4	-6	5
23	Preston	6	0	4	2	-2	4
24	Leeds	7	0	3	4	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Derby	7	4	3	0	+5	15
2	Birmingham	7	4	2	1	+5	14
3	Brighton	6	3	3	0	+3	12
4	Burnley	7	3	3	1	+1	12
5	Reading	7	3	2	2	+2	11
6	Middlesbrough	7	3	2	2	+2	11
7	Brentford	7	3	1	3	+2	10
8	Wolves	7	3	1	3	+1	10
9	Leeds	7	2	4	1	-1	10
10	Sheffield Weds	7	2	3	2	-1	9
11	Hull	6	2	2	2	+1	8
12	Preston	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	Nott'm Forest	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	Ipswich	7	2	2	3	-7	8
15	Cardiff	6	1	4	1	+0	7
16	QPR	7	2	1	4	-6	7
17	Fulham	6	1	3	2	+0	6
18	Blackburn	7	1	3	3	-3	6
19	Bristol City	7	1	3	3	-4	6
20	Milton Keynes Dons	7	1	2	4	-5	5
21	Huddersfield	6	1	2	3	-6	5
22	Rotherham	6	1	1	4	-3	4
23	Charlton	6	0	2	4	-6	2
24	Bolton	6	0	1	5	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.