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Championship

Referee: John Brooks

Hull

T U T S T

1–2

Full-time

Derby

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hull Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,5

This season — Championship · 5/4 matches

Win Ø 48%

20%

75%

Points per game

0,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

40%

50%

Both score Ø 55%

60%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

46% Possession 54%

18 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 5

9 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 10

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hull 19. · Derby 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	6	4	2	0	+7	14
2	Leeds	5	3	2	0	+7	11
3	Bolton	5	3	1	1	+0	10
4	Derby	4	3	0	1	+4	9
5	Aston Villa	5	2	3	0	+3	9
6	Blackburn	5	2	3	0	+2	9
7	Sheffield United	5	3	0	2	+1	9
8	Brentford	5	2	2	1	+5	8
9	Bristol City	5	2	2	1	+2	8
10	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+1	8
11	West Brom	5	2	1	2	+5	7
12	Wigan	5	2	1	2	+2	7
13	Nott'm Forest	5	1	4	0	+1	7
14	Sheffield Weds	5	2	1	2	-1	7
15	Rotherham	5	2	0	3	-5	6
16	Millwall	5	1	2	2	-1	5
17	Stoke	5	1	2	2	-3	5
18	Norwich	5	1	1	3	-3	4
19	Hull	5	1	1	3	-4	4
20	Preston	5	1	1	3	-4	4
21	Birmingham	5	0	3	2	-2	3
22	QPR	5	1	0	4	-10	3
23	Reading	5	0	2	3	-3	2
24	Ipswich	5	0	2	3	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Leeds	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Sheffield Weds	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Derby	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Rotherham	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Aston Villa	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Nott'm Forest	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Blackburn	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Wigan	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Swansea	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Stoke	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Bolton	3	1	1	1	-2	4
16	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+5	3
17	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
18	Norwich	3	1	0	2	-2	3
19	QPR	3	1	0	2	-3	3
20	Ipswich	2	0	2	0	+0	2
21	Birmingham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
22	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	1
23	Reading	2	0	0	2	-2	0
24	Hull	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Bolton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Sheffield United	3	2	0	1	+1	6
4	Middlesbrough	3	1	2	0	+2	5
5	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+3	4
6	Aston Villa	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Hull	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Wigan	3	1	0	2	+1	3
12	Derby	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Nott'm Forest	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Brentford	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Reading	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Norwich	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Birmingham	3	0	1	2	-2	1
19	Millwall	3	0	1	2	-2	1
20	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-3	0
21	Ipswich	3	0	0	3	-4	0
22	Preston	3	0	0	3	-5	0
23	Rotherham	2	0	0	2	-6	0
24	QPR	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.