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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Chelsea

T S S S S

4–1

Full-time

Cardiff

U T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,0

1,5

Scored

1,8

0,7

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

75%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

3,3

1,8

Scored

2,5

0,5

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

76% Possession 24%

18 Shots 6

7 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

8 Free kicks against 10

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 2. · Cardiff 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Chelsea	4	4	0	0	+7	12
3	Watford	4	4	0	0	+6	12
4	Man City	4	3	1	0	+8	10
5	Tottenham	5	3	0	2	+4	9
6	Bournemouth	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Everton	4	1	3	0	+1	6
8	Leicester	4	2	0	2	+1	6
9	Arsenal	4	2	0	2	+0	6
10	Man United	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Wolves	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Southampton	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Fulham	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Brighton	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Crystal Palace	4	1	0	3	-3	3
16	Cardiff	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	Huddersfield	4	0	2	2	-8	2
18	Newcastle	4	0	1	3	-3	1
19	Burnley	4	0	1	3	-6	1
20	West Ham	4	0	0	4	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Man City	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Bournemouth	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Everton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Fulham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Man United	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Wolves	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Cardiff	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Southampton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Newcastle	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Tottenham	3	2	0	1	+3	6
4	Man City	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Watford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Man United	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Southampton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Wolves	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Everton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Newcastle	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Burnley	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Cardiff	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-5	1
19	Brighton	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.