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Serie A

Referee: Michael Fabbri

Napoli

S S S S T

1–0

Full-time

Fiorentina

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,8

Scored

1,8

2,3

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,8

This season — Serie A · 3/2 matches

Win Ø 84%

67%

100%

Points per game

2,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,7

4,0

Scored

1,7

3,5

Conceded

2,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

56% Possession 44%

22 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 3

0 Offside 4

15 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 5. · Fiorentina 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Sassuolo	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Fiorentina	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Spal	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Napoli	3	2	0	1	-1	6
6	Atalanta	3	1	1	1	+3	4
7	Inter	4	1	1	2	+1	4
8	Empoli	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Roma	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Udinese	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Torino	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Parma	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Cagliari	3	1	1	1	-1	4
14	Sampdoria	2	1	0	1	+2	3
15	Milan	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Genoa	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Lazio	3	1	0	2	-2	3
18	Bologna	3	0	1	2	-4	1
19	Frosinone	3	0	1	2	-5	1
20	Chievo	3	0	1	2	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fiorentina	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Sassuolo	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+3	3
4	Sampdoria	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Empoli	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Milan	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Genoa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Udinese	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Spal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Lazio	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Roma	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Cagliari	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Frosinone	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Parma	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Inter	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Chievo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	Bologna	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Inter	2	1	0	1	+2	3
3	Roma	2	1	0	1	+0	3
4	Parma	2	1	0	1	+0	3
5	Spal	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	-1	3
7	Napoli	2	1	0	1	-2	3
8	Atalanta	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Sassuolo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Torino	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Bologna	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Empoli	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Milan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Sampdoria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Chievo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
19	Frosinone	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.