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Primeira Liga

Referee: Miguel Nogueira

Famalicao

S U U S U

1–2

Full-time

Maritimo

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Famalicao Maritimo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

1,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

2,0

1,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,71 xG 1,64

67% Possession 33%

14 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Famalicao 11. · Maritimo 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arouca	2	2	0	0	+5	-0.1	6
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
3	Nacional	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
4	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
5	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	4
6	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
7	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
8	Estrela	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
9	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.4	1
10	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
11	Famalicao	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
12	Academico Viseu	2	0	1	1	-1	-3.1	1
13	Alverca	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.4	1
14	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.6	1
15	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.8	1
16	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
17	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.9	0
18	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.7	3
2	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
3	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
4	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
5	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
6	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
7	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
8	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.4	1
9	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
10	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
11	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
12	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
13	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.8	0
14	Academico Viseu	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
15	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
2	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.8	3
3	Santa Clara	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
4	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
5	Academico Viseu	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.4	1
6	Sp Braga	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
7	Sp Lisbon	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.5	1
8	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
9	Famalicao	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
10	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
11	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.5	0
12	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
13	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
14	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
15	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.