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Primeira Liga

Referee: M Nogueira

Estoril

T T T U U

1–3

Full-time

Benfica

S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 49%

30%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

61%

70%

Both score Ø 58%

58%

Average goals

3,2

2,9

Scored

1,6

2,2

Conceded

1,6

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

1,52 xG 4,22

48% Possession 52%

16 Shots 19

6 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 9

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 10. · Benfica 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	34	28	4	2	+48	+40.1	88
2	Sp Lisbon	33	24	7	2	+62	+44.8	79
3	Benfica	33	22	11	0	+47	+39.3	77
4	Sp Braga	34	16	11	7	+28	+19.8	59
5	Famalicao	33	14	11	8	+12	+11.9	53
6	Gil Vicente	33	13	11	9	+12	+9.1	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	-12	-20.1	43
8	Guimaraes	34	12	6	16	-12	-6.2	42
9	Arouca	34	12	6	16	-17	-17.8	42
10	Estoril	33	10	9	14	-1	-9.9	39
11	Alverca	33	10	9	14	-16	-0.9	39
12	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	-9	+1.2	36
13	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	-22	-18.4	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	-8	-13.3	34
15	Estrela	34	6	12	16	-18	-12.7	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	-26	-23.7	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	-28	-12.4	28
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	-40	-30.8	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	17	14	3	0	+27	+21.7	45
2	Benfica	17	11	6	0	+28	+26.6	39
3	Sp Lisbon	16	12	2	2	+37	+27.8	38
4	Sp Braga	17	8	6	3	+16	+15.2	30
5	Gil Vicente	17	9	3	5	+11	+6.4	30
6	Famalicao	16	8	4	4	+14	+9.7	28
7	Guimaraes	17	8	4	5	+7	-0.4	28
8	Moreirense	17	8	3	6	-1	-9.0	27
9	Alverca	17	7	5	5	-5	+6.5	26
10	Arouca	17	7	4	6	-3	-6.0	25
11	Estoril	16	6	5	5	+5	-5.2	23
12	Santa Clara	17	7	2	8	+0	+4.7	23
13	Nacional	17	6	2	9	+0	-4.1	20
14	Estrela	17	4	6	7	-3	+0.0	18
15	Casa Pia	17	2	9	6	-8	-9.5	15
16	Rio Ave	17	3	6	8	-12	-3.0	15
17	Tondela	17	2	7	8	-8	-3.6	13
18	AVS	17	2	6	9	-12	-14.9	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	17	14	1	2	+21	+18.4	43
2	Sp Lisbon	17	12	5	0	+25	+17.0	41
3	Benfica	16	11	5	0	+19	+12.7	38
4	Sp Braga	17	8	5	4	+12	+4.5	29
5	Famalicao	17	6	7	4	-2	+2.3	25
6	Rio Ave	17	5	6	6	-10	-15.4	21
7	Gil Vicente	16	4	8	4	+1	+2.7	20
8	Arouca	17	5	2	10	-14	-11.8	17
9	Estoril	17	4	4	9	-6	-4.7	16
10	Moreirense	17	4	4	9	-11	-11.1	16
11	Casa Pia	17	4	3	10	-18	-14.2	15
12	Tondela	17	4	3	10	-20	-8.8	15
13	Nacional	17	3	5	9	-8	-9.1	14
14	Guimaraes	17	4	2	11	-19	-5.8	14
15	Santa Clara	17	2	7	8	-9	-3.5	13
16	Alverca	16	3	4	9	-11	-7.4	13
17	Estrela	17	2	6	9	-15	-12.7	12
18	AVS	17	1	6	10	-28	-16.0	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.