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Primeira Liga

Referee: M Fonseca

Nacional

U T T T U

0–1

Full-time

Estoril

U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,3

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 28%

20%

36%

Points per game

0,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

52%

68%

Both score Ø 58%

60%

56%

Average goals

2,6

3,5

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,80 xG 1,12

55% Possession 45%

16 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 13

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 15. · Estoril 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	25	21	3	1	+39	+31.4	66
2	Sp Lisbon	25	19	5	1	+50	+36.1	62
3	Benfica	26	18	8	0	+38	+28.8	62
4	Sp Braga	25	13	7	5	+27	+22.3	46
5	Gil Vicente	26	11	9	6	+12	+7.9	42
6	Famalicao	26	12	6	8	+10	+6.9	42
7	Moreirense	25	10	5	10	-4	-11.0	35
8	Estoril	25	9	7	9	+4	-5.8	34
9	Guimaraes	26	9	5	12	-10	-6.1	32
10	Alverca	26	7	8	11	-15	-1.6	29
11	Arouca	26	7	5	14	-22	-20.1	26
12	Estrela	25	5	10	10	-15	-11.3	25
13	Casa Pia	25	5	9	11	-18	-19.7	24
14	Rio Ave	25	5	9	11	-20	-18.8	24
15	Nacional	25	5	7	13	-8	-8.3	22
16	Santa Clara	25	5	7	13	-9	+0.0	22
17	Tondela	25	4	7	14	-20	-7.6	19
18	AVS	25	1	7	17	-39	-23.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	12	10	2	0	+20	+18.0	32
2	Sp Lisbon	12	10	1	1	+32	+22.4	31
3	Benfica	13	8	5	0	+20	+18.1	29
4	Sp Braga	12	7	3	2	+16	+13.3	24
5	Gil Vicente	13	7	3	3	+10	+4.7	24
6	Famalicao	13	7	2	4	+13	+7.0	23
7	Estoril	13	6	5	2	+9	-2.0	23
8	Guimaraes	14	6	4	4	+1	-3.5	22
9	Moreirense	12	6	2	4	-1	-5.6	20
10	Alverca	13	5	4	4	-5	+5.3	19
11	Arouca	13	4	3	6	-7	-6.5	15
12	Santa Clara	13	4	2	7	-2	+1.8	14
13	Estrela	13	3	5	5	-5	-0.8	14
14	Casa Pia	12	2	6	4	-6	-10.2	12
15	Nacional	12	3	2	7	-3	-4.5	11
16	Rio Ave	12	2	4	6	-9	-5.4	10
17	Tondela	13	1	5	7	-8	-4.7	8
18	AVS	13	1	4	8	-13	-8.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	1	1	+19	+13.4	34
2	Benfica	13	10	3	0	+18	+10.7	33
3	Sp Lisbon	13	9	4	0	+18	+13.6	31
4	Sp Braga	13	6	4	3	+11	+9.0	22
5	Famalicao	13	5	4	4	-3	-0.1	19
6	Gil Vicente	13	4	6	3	+2	+3.2	18
7	Moreirense	13	4	3	6	-3	-5.4	15
8	Rio Ave	13	3	5	5	-11	-13.3	14
9	Casa Pia	13	3	3	7	-12	-9.5	12
10	Estoril	12	3	2	7	-5	-3.8	11
11	Nacional	13	2	5	6	-5	-3.8	11
12	Estrela	12	2	5	5	-10	-10.5	11
13	Tondela	12	3	2	7	-12	-2.9	11
14	Arouca	13	3	2	8	-15	-13.6	11
15	Alverca	13	2	4	7	-10	-6.9	10
16	Guimaraes	12	3	1	8	-11	-2.6	10
17	Santa Clara	12	1	5	6	-7	-1.8	8
18	AVS	12	0	3	9	-26	-14.6	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.