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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Xistra

Nacional

T T T U T

0–1

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

17%

100%

Points per game

0,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,0

2,5

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 47%

24%

69%

Points per game

0,9

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

55%

69%

Both score Ø 54%

41%

66%

Average goals

3,1

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

41% Possession 59%

3 Shots 23

1 Shots on target 10

0 Blocked shots 10

9 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 9

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 16. · Sp Lisbon 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	29	23	3	3	+55	72
2	Porto	29	23	3	3	+44	72
3	Sp Lisbon	29	20	4	5	+30	64
4	Sp Braga	29	19	4	6	+21	61
5	Moreirense	29	15	4	10	+0	49
6	Guimaraes	29	13	6	10	+10	45
7	Belenenses	29	9	13	7	+4	40
8	Santa Clara	29	10	7	12	+0	37
9	Rio Ave	29	9	8	12	-6	35
10	Portimonense	30	9	6	15	-11	33
11	Maritimo	29	10	3	16	-13	33
12	Vitoria Setubal	30	7	11	12	-7	32
13	Boavista	30	9	5	16	-14	32
14	Tondela	30	8	7	15	-13	31
15	Aves	29	8	6	15	-13	30
16	Nacional	29	7	6	16	-29	27
17	Chaves	29	6	7	16	-23	25
18	Feirense	29	2	9	18	-35	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	13	1	1	+23	40
2	Sp Braga	15	12	1	2	+18	37
3	Porto	14	12	0	2	+26	36
4	Benfica	14	11	2	1	+33	35
5	Guimaraes	14	9	3	2	+13	30
6	Moreirense	14	8	3	3	+3	27
7	Boavista	15	8	1	6	+3	25
8	Portimonense	15	6	4	5	+3	22
9	Tondela	15	6	3	6	-3	21
10	Belenenses	14	5	5	4	+5	20
11	Rio Ave	15	5	5	5	-1	20
12	Maritimo	14	6	2	6	-2	20
13	Vitoria Setubal	15	4	6	5	+0	18
14	Santa Clara	15	5	3	7	-2	18
15	Nacional	15	5	3	7	-5	18
16	Aves	15	4	3	8	-5	15
17	Chaves	15	3	6	6	-5	15
18	Feirense	14	1	5	8	-11	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	12	1	2	+22	37
2	Porto	15	11	3	1	+18	36
3	Sp Lisbon	14	7	3	4	+7	24
4	Sp Braga	14	7	3	4	+3	24
5	Moreirense	15	7	1	7	-3	22
6	Belenenses	15	4	8	3	-1	20
7	Santa Clara	14	5	4	5	+2	19
8	Guimaraes	15	4	3	8	-3	15
9	Rio Ave	14	4	3	7	-5	15
10	Aves	14	4	3	7	-8	15
11	Vitoria Setubal	15	3	5	7	-7	14
12	Maritimo	15	4	1	10	-11	13
13	Portimonense	15	3	2	10	-14	11
14	Tondela	15	2	4	9	-10	10
15	Chaves	14	3	1	10	-18	10
16	Nacional	14	2	3	9	-24	9
17	Boavista	15	1	4	10	-17	7
18	Feirense	15	1	4	10	-24	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.