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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Fábio Veríssimo

Porto

S U S S S

2–1

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 83%

83%

Points per game

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

2,2

Conceded

0,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Taça de Portugal · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 92%

100%

83%

Points per game

3,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,0

4,3

Scored

2,7

3,7

Conceded

0,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

65% Possession 35%

25 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 8

9 Blocked shots 0

7 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

23 Free kicks against 15

6 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Porto 1. · Sp Lisbon 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+14	18
2	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+18	16
3	Benfica	6	4	1	1	+6	13
4	União de Leiria	5	4	0	1	+19	12
5	Guimaraes	6	4	0	2	+5	12
6	Maritimo	4	3	0	1	+4	9
7	Amarante	4	3	0	1	+3	9
8	Gil Vicente	4	3	0	1	+2	9
9	Vizela	4	3	0	1	+2	9
10	Nacional	4	2	2	0	+7	8
11	Santa Clara	5	2	2	1	+4	8
12	Paredes	4	2	1	1	+3	7
13	Penafiel	4	2	1	1	+3	7
14	Tondela	4	2	1	1	+2	7
15	Torreense	3	2	1	0	+2	7
16	FC Serpa	4	2	1	1	+1	7
17	Montalegre	4	2	1	1	-1	7
18	Mafra	3	2	0	1	+6	6
19	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+4	6
20	Vilaverdense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
21	Felgueiras 1932	3	2	0	1	+3	6
22	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
23	Academica	3	2	0	1	+3	6
24	Estoril	3	2	0	1	+2	6
25	Rebordosa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
26	CD Olivais e Moscavide	3	2	0	1	+1	6
27	Sintrense	3	2	0	1	-2	6
28	Dumiense	3	2	0	1	-6	6
29	Pêro Pinheiro	3	1	2	0	+1	5
30	O Elvas	3	1	2	0	+1	5
31	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+13	4
32	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	1	0	+7	4
33	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
34	Canelas 2010	3	1	1	1	+3	4
35	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+2	4
36	Tirsense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
37	AD Marco 09	2	1	1	0	+2	4
38	Casa Pia	2	1	1	0	+2	4
39	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
40	Arouca	3	1	1	1	+1	4
41	Leixoes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
42	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	1	1	+0	4
43	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
44	Amora	2	1	0	1	+7	3
45	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+5	3
46	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
47	Famalicao	2	1	0	1	+3	3
48	Moncarapachense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
49	Vilar de Perdizes	2	1	0	1	+2	3
50	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
51	Vila Meã	2	1	0	1	+2	3
52	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
53	Quarteirense SAD	2	1	0	1	+1	3
54	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
55	Tocha	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Sandinenses	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	Feirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	1º Dezembro	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Estrela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
60	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	CF Os Belenenses	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	AVS	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
65	Academico Viseu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
66	Rabo Peixe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
67	Fabril Barreiro	2	1	0	1	-1	3
68	Ribeirão	2	1	0	1	-1	3
69	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	-2	3
70	Florgrade	2	1	0	1	-2	3
71	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	-2	3
72	Camacha	2	1	0	1	-2	3
73	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-2	3
74	Santa Maria FC	2	1	0	1	-2	3
75	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
76	União Micaelense	2	1	0	1	-3	3
77	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
78	Pombal	2	1	0	1	-3	3
79	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
80	Atlético Malveira	3	0	2	1	-5	2
81	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
82	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
84	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
85	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
86	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
87	Chaves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
88	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
89	Sanjoanense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
90	Atlético CP	2	0	1	1	-1	1
91	Oliveirense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
92	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
93	SC Covilha	2	0	1	1	-3	1
94	Os Limianos	2	0	1	1	-4	1
95	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
111	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
112	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
113	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
114	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
115	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
116	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
128	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
129	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
130	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
131	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
132	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
135	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
136	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
137	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
138	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
139	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
140	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
141	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
142	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
143	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
144	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
145	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0
146	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+13	9
2	Guimaraes	4	3	0	1	+5	9
3	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Porto	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Academica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Penafiel	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Paredes	3	2	0	1	+3	6
8	Dumiense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Vizela	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	O Elvas	3	1	2	0	+1	5
11	Nacional	2	1	1	0	+5	4
12	Valadares Gaia	2	1	1	0	+4	4
13	Canelas 2010	3	1	1	1	+3	4
14	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	1	1	0	+2	4
15	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+1	4
16	Torreense	2	1	1	0	+1	4
17	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+13	3
18	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	1	0	1	+9	3
19	Amora	1	1	0	0	+8	3
20	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+6	3
21	Moncarapachense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
22	União de Leiria	2	1	0	1	+2	3
23	Felgueiras 1932	2	1	0	1	+2	3
24	Vilar de Perdizes	2	1	0	1	+2	3
25	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
26	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Florgrade	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	Montalegre	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	União Micaelense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
38	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Alqueidão da Serra	2	1	0	1	-1	3
41	Rabo Peixe	2	1	0	1	-1	3
42	Rebordosa	2	1	0	1	-1	3
43	Lusitânia	2	1	0	1	-2	3
44	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
45	Estoril	2	1	0	1	-3	3
46	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	-3	3
47	Peniche	2	0	2	0	+0	2
48	Pêro Pinheiro	2	0	2	0	+0	2
49	Arouca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Atlético Arcos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Os Limianos	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	União Lamas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Leixoes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Atlético Malveira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Atlético CP	2	0	1	1	-1	1
58	Portosantense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
59	Fafe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	União de Tomar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	CF Os Belenenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Real	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Padernense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Oriental Lisboa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	São João Ver	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Trofense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Guadalupe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Quarteirense SAD	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Tocha	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Academico Viseu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Oliveirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Sandinenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Aliados Lordelo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Sertanense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Brito	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Flamengos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Vila Real	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Os Vilanovenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
89	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
90	Ribeirão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
91	FC Barreirense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
92	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-3	0
93	Luzense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
94	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-5	0
95	Pombal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
96	AD Fornos Algodres	1	0	0	1	-5	0
97	Ponte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
98	Gafetense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
99	Amiense	1	0	0	1	-7	0
100	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	União de Leiria	3	3	0	0	+17	9
3	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+4	6
5	Maritimo	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Benfica	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
8	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	Amarante	3	2	0	1	+2	6
10	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+0	6
11	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	+3	4
12	Nacional	2	1	1	0	+2	4
13	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+2	4
14	Tirsense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
15	AD Marco 09	2	1	1	0	+2	4
16	Casa Pia	2	1	1	0	+2	4
17	Tondela	3	1	1	1	+1	4
18	FC Serpa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
19	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	1	1	+0	4
20	Montalegre	3	1	1	1	-2	4
21	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+7	3
22	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+5	3
23	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	0	1	+4	3
24	Mafra	2	1	0	1	+4	3
25	Famalicao	2	1	0	1	+3	3
26	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
27	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+3	3
28	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
29	Vilaverdense	2	1	0	1	+2	3
30	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
31	Sandinenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
32	Tocha	1	1	0	0	+2	3
33	Quarteirense SAD	1	1	0	0	+2	3
34	Ribeirão	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Pombal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	Arouca	2	1	0	1	+1	3
37	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Vizela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Fabril Barreiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Feirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Estrela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Pevidem	2	1	0	1	+0	3
50	AVS	2	1	0	1	+0	3
51	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	-2	3
52	Santa Maria FC	2	1	0	1	-2	3
53	Fontinhas	2	1	0	1	-3	3
54	Sanjoanense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Varzim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Paredes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Oliveirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Caldas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	Chaves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
62	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
63	Gondomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Penafiel	2	0	1	1	-1	1
65	Atlético Malveira	2	0	1	1	-5	1
66	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	CF Oliveira Douro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	CD Torres Novas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Lobão	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Gouveia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Penedo Gordo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Imortal Albufeira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Lanheses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Foz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Operário	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-3	0
88	União de Coimbra	1	0	0	1	-3	0
89	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
90	União Micaelense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
91	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-4	0
92	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
93	Torre de Moncorvo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
94	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
95	Proença-a-Nova	1	0	0	1	-6	0
96	Dumiense	1	0	0	1	-8	0
97	Vitória do Pico	1	0	0	1	-8	0
98	Régua	1	0	0	1	-10	0
99	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.