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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Macedo

Casa Pia

U T S S

0–0

Full-time

Arouca

U T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Casa Pia Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 9%

17%

Average goals

1,0

2,5

Scored

0,8

0,5

Conceded

0,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

75%

Both score Ø 13%

25%

Average goals

1,0

3,5

Scored

0,8

Conceded

0,3

2,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%

6 Shots 8

1 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

9 Corners 2

13 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Casa Pia 7. · Arouca 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+10	15
2	Sp Braga	5	4	1	0	+15	13
3	Porto	5	4	0	1	+8	12
4	Portimonense	4	3	0	1	+4	9
5	Estoril	5	2	1	2	+2	7
6	Chaves	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Casa Pia	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Sp Lisbon	5	2	1	2	+0	7
9	Guimaraes	5	2	0	3	-1	6
10	Boavista	4	2	0	2	-3	6
11	Arouca	4	2	0	2	-8	6
12	Vizela	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Gil Vicente	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Rio Ave	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Famalicao	4	1	1	2	-4	4
16	Santa Clara	4	0	1	3	-3	1
17	Pacos Ferreira	4	0	0	4	-8	0
18	Maritimo	4	0	0	4	-11	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+6	7
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	Estoril	3	1	1	1	+0	4
5	Gil Vicente	3	1	1	1	-1	4
6	Sp Lisbon	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Boavista	2	1	0	1	-2	3
12	Famalicao	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-5	3
14	Vizela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Santa Clara	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Chaves	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Maritimo	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+9	6
2	Portimonense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Chaves	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Porto	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Casa Pia	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Vizela	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Sp Lisbon	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Estoril	2	1	0	1	+2	3
10	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Boavista	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-3	3
13	Gil Vicente	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Santa Clara	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Maritimo	2	0	0	2	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.