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Ligue 1

Referee: J Stinat

Ajaccio

T U T T T

0–1

Full-time

Lorient

U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajaccio Lorient

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 5/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

60%

75%

Both score Ø 68%

60%

75%

Average goals

2,4

3,8

Scored

0,6

1,8

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

58% Possession 42%

16 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 3

4 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajaccio 20. · Lorient 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	5	1	0	+20	16
2	Marseille	6	5	1	0	+10	16
3	Lyon	5	4	1	0	+10	13
4	Lens	5	4	1	0	+8	13
5	Lille	6	3	1	2	+0	10
6	Montpellier	6	3	0	3	+4	9
7	Rennes	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	Lorient	4	2	1	1	-1	7
9	Auxerre	6	2	1	3	-4	7
10	Nantes	6	1	3	2	-2	6
11	Troyes	5	2	0	3	-3	6
12	Clermont	5	2	0	3	-4	6
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Reims	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Nice	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Monaco	5	1	2	2	-4	5
17	Brest	5	1	1	3	-8	4
18	Strasbourg	5	0	3	2	-2	3
19	Angers	6	0	2	4	-11	2
20	Ajaccio	5	0	1	4	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lyon	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Lens	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Marseille	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Rennes	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Montpellier	4	2	0	2	+0	6
6	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	Nantes	3	1	1	1	-1	4
8	Auxerre	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Lorient	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Troyes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Lille	3	1	0	2	-4	3
12	Clermont	2	1	0	1	-4	3
13	Strasbourg	3	0	2	1	-1	2
14	Toulouse	3	0	2	1	-3	2
15	Reims	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Ajaccio	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Nice	2	0	1	1	-3	1
18	Angers	3	0	1	2	-4	1
19	Monaco	3	0	1	2	-5	1
20	Brest	2	0	1	1	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	4	0	0	+17	12
2	Marseille	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Lille	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Lens	2	1	1	0	+3	4
5	Monaco	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Nice	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Reims	3	1	1	1	-1	4
8	Lorient	3	1	1	1	-2	4
9	Montpellier	2	1	0	1	+4	3
10	Toulouse	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Clermont	3	1	0	2	+0	3
12	Brest	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Troyes	3	1	0	2	-2	3
14	Auxerre	3	1	0	2	-3	3
15	Nantes	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Lyon	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Rennes	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Strasbourg	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Angers	3	0	1	2	-7	1
20	Ajaccio	3	0	0	3	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.