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Eredivisie

Referee: E Blank

Nijmegen

T U U T S

3–3

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 25/23 matches

Win Ø 40%

32%

48%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

60%

61%

Both score Ø 53%

48%

57%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,4

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,38 xG 1,01

49% Possession 51%

15 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nijmegen 12. · AZ Alkmaar 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	26	20	4	2	+35	+26.0	64
2	PSV Eindhoven	26	18	4	4	+48	+33.7	58
3	Utrecht	26	14	7	5	+7	+2.7	49
4	Feyenoord	25	13	8	4	+25	+22.3	47
5	Go Ahead Eagles	26	13	5	8	+7	+11.3	44
6	Twente	24	12	7	5	+14	+14.9	43
7	AZ Alkmaar	23	11	5	7	+7	+9.4	38
8	Groningen	26	8	8	10	-9	-8.6	32
9	For Sittard	27	9	5	13	-14	-4.9	32
10	Heerenveen	25	8	7	10	-6	-1.2	31
11	NAC Breda	27	8	6	13	-16	-14.7	30
12	Nijmegen	25	8	5	12	+2	+0.7	29
13	Sparta Rotterdam	27	6	10	11	-7	+0.6	28
14	Heracles	26	6	10	10	-14	-15.4	28
15	Zwolle	26	6	8	12	-11	-22.7	26
16	Willem II	27	6	6	15	-16	-22.9	24
17	Almere City	27	4	6	17	-32	-15.4	18
18	Waalwijk	25	4	5	16	-20	-15.8	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	13	11	2	0	+23	+18.3	35
2	PSV Eindhoven	13	10	3	0	+31	+20.4	33
3	Go Ahead Eagles	14	9	3	2	+12	+13.0	30
4	Twente	12	8	3	1	+14	+12.2	27
5	Feyenoord	12	7	3	2	+11	+14.0	24
6	Heerenveen	13	6	6	1	+9	+6.9	24
7	Groningen	13	6	5	2	+7	+2.7	23
8	NAC Breda	14	6	4	4	+1	-0.2	22
9	Utrecht	13	6	2	5	-4	+5.8	20
10	Heracles	13	4	7	2	+4	+2.4	19
11	For Sittard	13	6	0	7	-7	+1.9	18
12	Zwolle	13	5	2	6	+0	-7.5	17
13	Nijmegen	13	4	4	5	+8	+6.0	16
14	AZ Alkmaar	10	5	1	4	+2	+7.5	16
15	Willem II	14	3	3	8	-4	-8.7	12
16	Sparta Rotterdam	13	2	6	5	-4	+3.4	12
17	Waalwijk	13	3	2	8	-6	-6.3	11
18	Almere City	13	2	2	9	-20	-3.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	13	9	2	2	+12	+7.7	29
2	Utrecht	13	8	5	0	+11	-3.0	29
3	PSV Eindhoven	13	8	1	4	+17	+13.3	25
4	Feyenoord	13	6	5	2	+14	+8.3	23
5	AZ Alkmaar	13	6	4	3	+5	+1.9	22
6	Twente	12	4	4	4	+0	+2.7	16
7	Sparta Rotterdam	14	4	4	6	-3	-2.8	16
8	Go Ahead Eagles	12	4	2	6	-5	-1.8	14
9	For Sittard	14	3	5	6	-7	-6.8	14
10	Nijmegen	12	4	1	7	-6	-5.3	13
11	Willem II	13	3	3	7	-12	-14.2	12
12	Almere City	14	2	4	8	-12	-11.6	10
13	Zwolle	13	1	6	6	-11	-15.2	9
14	Groningen	13	2	3	8	-16	-11.3	9
15	Heracles	13	2	3	8	-18	-17.8	9
16	NAC Breda	13	2	2	9	-17	-14.5	8
17	Heerenveen	12	2	1	9	-15	-8.0	7
18	Waalwijk	12	1	3	8	-14	-9.5	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.