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Eredivisie

Referee: J Manschot

AZ Alkmaar

T T S S U

1–2

Full-time

Nijmegen

U S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,0

4,5

Scored

1,2

2,3

Conceded

0,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 13/12 matches

Win Ø 43%

69%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

54%

75%

Both score Ø 61%

46%

75%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

2,3

1,8

Conceded

0,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

2,59 xG 0,60

74% Possession 26%

26 Shots 4

4 Shots on target 2

9 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

13 Corners 1

4 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 3. · Nijmegen 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	14	14	0	0	+44	+30.5	42
2	Feyenoord	14	10	2	2	+28	+27.2	32
3	AZ Alkmaar	13	9	3	1	+23	+11.7	30
4	Twente	14	9	3	2	+13	+9.1	30
5	Go Ahead Eagles	13	6	3	4	+5	-8.1	21
6	Sparta Rotterdam	14	6	3	5	+1	-1.5	21
7	Heerenveen	14	6	1	7	-3	+0.8	19
8	Ajax	13	5	3	5	+3	+2.4	18
9	Zwolle	14	5	2	7	-3	-3.6	17
10	Excelsior	14	3	7	4	-3	-5.0	16
11	For Sittard	14	4	4	6	-9	-2.5	16
12	Heracles	14	4	3	7	-13	-8.2	15
13	Utrecht	14	3	4	7	-11	-10.5	13
14	Waalwijk	13	4	1	8	-11	-3.9	13
15	Almere City	14	3	4	7	-18	-8.2	13
16	Nijmegen	12	2	5	5	-3	-10.8	11
17	Volendam	14	2	2	10	-21	-8.4	8
18	Vitesse	14	2	2	10	-22	-10.8	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+20	+16.2	21
2	Feyenoord	7	5	1	1	+16	+11.6	16
3	AZ Alkmaar	6	5	1	0	+16	+11.3	16
4	Go Ahead Eagles	7	5	1	1	+13	+3.1	16
5	Twente	7	5	1	1	+4	+2.8	16
6	For Sittard	7	4	2	1	+5	+4.5	14
7	Heerenveen	7	4	1	2	+6	+6.4	13
8	Ajax	6	4	0	2	+8	+4.1	12
9	Heracles	7	3	1	3	-5	-3.5	10
10	Nijmegen	7	2	2	3	+2	-1.3	8
11	Sparta Rotterdam	7	2	2	3	-3	-0.5	8
12	Excelsior	7	1	4	2	-3	-2.3	7
13	Zwolle	7	2	1	4	-4	+1.2	7
14	Waalwijk	7	2	1	4	-6	-3.4	7
15	Volendam	7	2	1	4	-8	+1.2	7
16	Utrecht	7	1	3	3	-7	-4.9	6
17	Almere City	7	1	2	4	-12	-3.9	5
18	Vitesse	6	0	2	4	-8	-1.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+24	+14.3	21
2	Feyenoord	7	5	1	1	+12	+15.6	16
3	Twente	7	4	2	1	+9	+6.3	14
4	AZ Alkmaar	7	4	2	1	+7	+0.4	14
5	Sparta Rotterdam	7	4	1	2	+4	-1.1	13
6	Zwolle	7	3	1	3	+1	-4.9	10
7	Excelsior	7	2	3	2	+0	-2.7	9
8	Almere City	7	2	2	3	-6	-4.3	8
9	Utrecht	7	2	1	4	-4	-5.6	7
10	Ajax	7	1	3	3	-5	-1.7	6
11	Waalwijk	6	2	0	4	-5	-0.4	6
12	Heerenveen	7	2	0	5	-9	-5.6	6
13	Vitesse	8	2	0	6	-14	-8.8	6
14	Heracles	7	1	2	4	-8	-4.7	5
15	Go Ahead Eagles	6	1	2	3	-8	-11.2	5
16	Nijmegen	5	0	3	2	-5	-9.5	3
17	For Sittard	7	0	2	5	-14	-7.0	2
18	Volendam	7	0	1	6	-13	-9.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.