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Bundesliga

Referee: F Badstübner

Bayern Munich

S S T S U

3–2

Full-time

St Pauli

T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich St Pauli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,3

1,7

Scored

2,5

0,3

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 50%

73%

27%

Points per game

2,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

73%

27%

Both score Ø 39%

54%

23%

Average goals

3,8

1,9

Scored

2,9

0,8

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,53 xG 0,92

66% Possession 34%

19 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 4

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · St Pauli 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	26	19	5	2	+51	+44.9	62
2	Leverkusen	27	17	8	2	+28	+23.5	59
3	Mainz	26	13	6	7	+16	+0.2	45
4	Ein Frankfurt	26	13	6	7	+14	+8.7	45
5	RB Leipzig	26	11	9	6	+8	-5.4	42
6	Freiburg	26	12	6	8	-2	+1.0	42
7	M'gladbach	26	12	4	10	+3	-6.1	40
8	Wolfsburg	26	10	8	8	+9	-1.8	38
9	Augsburg	26	10	8	8	-6	-8.4	38
10	Stuttgart	26	10	7	9	+4	+8.5	37
11	Dortmund	26	10	5	11	+4	+12.7	35
12	Werder Bremen	26	9	6	11	-13	-2.2	33
13	Union Berlin	26	7	7	12	-14	-7.9	28
14	Hoffenheim	26	6	8	12	-16	-14.5	26
15	St Pauli	26	7	4	15	-10	-6.6	25
16	Heidenheim	26	5	4	17	-21	-10.4	19
17	Bochum	27	4	6	17	-29	-20.6	18
18	Holstein Kiel	26	4	5	17	-26	-15.6	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	11	1	1	+31	+30.3	34
2	Leverkusen	14	9	3	2	+14	+15.3	30
3	Freiburg	12	8	2	2	+11	+3.6	26
4	RB Leipzig	13	7	4	2	+9	+1.9	25
5	Dortmund	13	7	3	3	+15	+12.4	24
6	Ein Frankfurt	13	7	3	3	+11	+10.9	24
7	Mainz	13	6	4	3	+6	+3.3	22
8	Augsburg	13	6	4	3	+3	+3.8	22
9	Stuttgart	14	6	2	6	+6	+10.4	20
10	M'gladbach	13	6	2	5	+4	-0.1	20
11	Union Berlin	13	4	5	4	-1	+2.4	17
12	Wolfsburg	13	3	6	4	+0	+1.3	15
13	Hoffenheim	13	3	4	6	-8	-3.9	13
14	Werder Bremen	13	3	4	6	-8	+1.6	13
15	St Pauli	13	3	3	7	-6	+0.1	12
16	Bochum	13	3	3	7	-9	-3.8	12
17	Holstein Kiel	13	3	2	8	-13	-6.3	11
18	Heidenheim	13	3	1	9	-12	-4.7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	13	8	5	0	+14	+8.2	29
2	Bayern Munich	13	8	4	1	+20	+14.6	28
3	Mainz	13	7	2	4	+10	-3.2	23
4	Wolfsburg	13	7	2	4	+9	-3.1	23
5	Ein Frankfurt	13	6	3	4	+3	-2.2	21
6	M'gladbach	13	6	2	5	-1	-6.0	20
7	Werder Bremen	13	6	2	5	-5	-3.8	20
8	RB Leipzig	13	4	5	4	-1	-7.3	17
9	Stuttgart	12	4	5	3	-2	-2.0	17
10	Augsburg	13	4	4	5	-9	-12.2	16
11	Freiburg	14	4	4	6	-13	-2.5	16
12	St Pauli	13	4	1	8	-4	-6.6	13
13	Hoffenheim	13	3	4	6	-8	-10.6	13
14	Dortmund	13	3	2	8	-11	+0.3	11
15	Union Berlin	13	3	2	8	-13	-10.3	11
16	Heidenheim	13	2	3	8	-9	-5.7	9
17	Holstein Kiel	13	1	3	9	-13	-9.3	6
18	Bochum	14	1	3	10	-20	-16.8	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.