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Eredivisie

Referee: E van de Graaf

Nijmegen

T S S U T

2–2

Full-time

Almere City

S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen Almere City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 24%

33%

14%

Points per game

1,1

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

62%

48%

Both score Ø 39%

48%

29%

Average goals

3,0

2,6

Scored

1,5

0,6

Conceded

1,4

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,93 xG 0,70

48% Possession 52%

9 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 7

4 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nijmegen 12. · Almere City 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	23	16	4	3	+45	+30.3	52
2	Ajax	21	16	3	2	+27	+19.5	51
3	Utrecht	23	12	7	4	+6	+0.2	43
4	Feyenoord	22	11	7	4	+20	+17.4	40
5	Twente	20	10	6	4	+15	+15.7	36
6	Go Ahead Eagles	22	10	5	7	+6	+9.3	35
7	AZ Alkmaar	20	10	4	6	+8	+9.9	34
8	Groningen	23	7	6	10	-10	-8.9	27
9	NAC Breda	23	8	3	12	-15	-13.0	27
10	Heerenveen	21	7	5	9	-7	-0.8	26
11	For Sittard	22	7	5	10	-11	-5.6	26
12	Nijmegen	21	7	3	11	+2	+3.7	24
13	Zwolle	22	6	6	10	-8	-17.6	24
14	Willem II	23	6	6	11	-8	-18.4	24
15	Heracles	22	5	9	8	-11	-12.3	24
16	Sparta Rotterdam	23	4	8	11	-14	-2.6	20
17	Waalwijk	22	4	5	13	-14	-12.3	17
18	Almere City	21	3	4	14	-31	-14.6	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	9	3	0	+30	+18.1	30
2	Ajax	10	9	1	0	+17	+13.8	28
3	Go Ahead Eagles	12	7	3	2	+10	+11.6	24
4	Twente	9	6	3	0	+15	+13.2	21
5	Feyenoord	10	6	2	2	+10	+12.0	20
6	Heerenveen	11	5	5	1	+7	+5.3	20
7	NAC Breda	12	6	2	4	+1	-0.7	20
8	Groningen	11	5	4	2	+6	+1.9	19
9	Utrecht	11	5	2	4	-4	+3.7	17
10	Heracles	12	3	7	2	+2	+0.2	16
11	Zwolle	11	5	1	5	+1	-5.3	16
12	Nijmegen	11	4	3	4	+9	+7.9	15
13	For Sittard	11	5	0	6	-5	+0.1	15
14	AZ Alkmaar	9	4	1	4	+1	+6.5	13
15	Willem II	12	3	3	6	-1	-6.9	12
16	Waalwijk	11	3	2	6	-2	-3.5	11
17	Sparta Rotterdam	11	1	5	5	-8	+0.7	8
18	Almere City	11	2	1	8	-19	-4.3	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Utrecht	12	7	5	0	+10	-3.5	26
2	Ajax	11	7	2	2	+10	+5.7	23
3	PSV Eindhoven	11	7	1	3	+15	+12.1	22
4	AZ Alkmaar	11	6	3	2	+7	+3.3	21
5	Feyenoord	12	5	5	2	+10	+5.4	20
6	Twente	11	4	3	4	+0	+2.5	15
7	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	3	6	-6	-3.3	12
8	Willem II	11	3	3	5	-7	-11.5	12
9	Go Ahead Eagles	10	3	2	5	-4	-2.2	11
10	For Sittard	11	2	5	4	-6	-5.7	11
11	Nijmegen	10	3	0	7	-7	-4.2	9
12	Zwolle	11	1	5	5	-9	-12.3	8
13	Heracles	10	2	2	6	-13	-12.5	8
14	Groningen	12	2	2	8	-16	-10.8	8
15	NAC Breda	11	2	1	8	-16	-12.3	7
16	Waalwijk	11	1	3	7	-12	-8.8	6
17	Almere City	10	1	3	6	-12	-10.3	6
18	Heerenveen	10	2	0	8	-14	-6.0	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.