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Eredivisie

Referee: M van den Kerkhof

Utrecht

T T U S S

0–1

Full-time

Nijmegen

U T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,8

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 25/24 matches

Win Ø 43%

56%

29%

Points per game

2,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

64%

63%

Both score Ø 61%

72%

50%

Average goals

3,4

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,75 xG 1,53

54% Possession 46%

19 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Utrecht 3. · Nijmegen 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	25	20	3	2	+35	+25.3	63
2	PSV Eindhoven	25	17	4	4	+45	+31.8	55
3	Utrecht	25	14	7	4	+8	+2.5	49
4	Feyenoord	24	12	8	4	+21	+19.4	44
5	Twente	23	12	7	4	+18	+17.8	43
6	Go Ahead Eagles	25	12	5	8	+6	+10.5	41
7	AZ Alkmaar	22	11	4	7	+7	+10.1	37
8	For Sittard	25	9	5	11	-10	-3.3	32
9	Heerenveen	24	8	6	10	-6	-2.0	30
10	NAC Breda	26	8	5	13	-16	-15.2	29
11	Groningen	24	7	7	10	-10	-9.2	28
12	Heracles	25	6	9	10	-14	-14.5	27
13	Nijmegen	24	7	5	12	+1	+0.9	26
14	Zwolle	25	6	7	12	-11	-22.0	25
15	Sparta Rotterdam	25	5	9	11	-10	-0.7	24
16	Willem II	25	6	6	13	-13	-20.8	24
17	Waalwijk	24	4	5	15	-17	-13.9	17
18	Almere City	26	3	6	17	-34	-16.7	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	12	11	1	0	+23	+17.6	34
2	PSV Eindhoven	13	10	3	0	+31	+20.4	33
3	Twente	11	8	3	0	+18	+15.0	27
4	Go Ahead Eagles	13	8	3	2	+11	+12.3	27
5	Feyenoord	12	7	3	2	+11	+14.0	24
6	Heerenveen	12	6	5	1	+9	+6.0	23
7	NAC Breda	13	6	3	4	+1	-0.6	21
8	Groningen	12	5	5	2	+6	+1.6	20
9	Utrecht	12	6	2	4	-3	+5.5	20
10	Heracles	13	4	7	2	+4	+2.4	19
11	For Sittard	12	6	0	6	-4	+2.4	18
12	Zwolle	13	5	2	6	+0	-7.5	17
13	Nijmegen	13	4	4	5	+8	+6.0	16
14	AZ Alkmaar	10	5	1	4	+2	+7.5	16
15	Willem II	13	3	3	7	-2	-7.4	12
16	Waalwijk	12	3	2	7	-3	-4.5	11
17	Sparta Rotterdam	12	2	5	5	-4	+2.6	11
18	Almere City	13	2	2	9	-20	-3.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	13	9	2	2	+12	+7.7	29
2	Utrecht	13	8	5	0	+11	-3.0	29
3	PSV Eindhoven	12	7	1	4	+14	+11.4	22
4	AZ Alkmaar	12	6	3	3	+5	+2.6	21
5	Feyenoord	12	5	5	2	+10	+5.4	20
6	Twente	12	4	4	4	+0	+2.7	16
7	Go Ahead Eagles	12	4	2	6	-5	-1.8	14
8	For Sittard	13	3	5	5	-6	-5.7	14
9	Sparta Rotterdam	13	3	4	6	-6	-3.3	13
10	Willem II	12	3	3	6	-11	-13.4	12
11	Nijmegen	11	3	1	7	-7	-5.1	10
12	Zwolle	12	1	5	6	-11	-14.4	8
13	Groningen	12	2	2	8	-16	-10.8	8
14	NAC Breda	13	2	2	9	-17	-14.5	8
15	Heracles	12	2	2	8	-18	-16.9	8
16	Almere City	13	1	4	8	-14	-12.9	7
17	Heerenveen	12	2	1	9	-15	-8.0	7
18	Waalwijk	12	1	3	8	-14	-9.5	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.