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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Pires Costa

Sp Braga

S T T S S

2–1

Full-time

Arouca

U U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,2

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 45%

62%

27%

Points per game

2,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

50%

46%

Both score Ø 48%

42%

54%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,6

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,69 xG 0,63

55% Possession 45%

14 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 1

1 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 4. · Arouca 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	27	20	5	2	+50	+42.2	65
2	Benfica	26	20	2	4	+42	+39.3	62
3	Porto	26	16	5	5	+31	+24.3	53
4	Sp Braga	26	16	5	5	+20	+14.9	53
5	Santa Clara	26	13	4	9	+2	+7.7	43
6	Guimaraes	26	10	11	5	+9	+10.5	41
7	Casa Pia	27	11	6	10	-2	-8.6	39
8	Estoril	26	9	9	8	-7	-14.8	36
9	Famalicao	26	8	10	8	+0	-7.7	34
10	Moreirense	26	8	7	11	-6	-0.1	31
11	Nacional	26	8	5	13	-10	-7.0	29
12	Arouca	26	7	8	11	-14	-8.9	29
13	Rio Ave	27	7	8	12	-15	-17.2	29
14	Gil Vicente	26	5	8	13	-16	-11.2	23
15	AVS	26	4	11	11	-17	-12.9	23
16	Estrela	27	5	8	14	-20	-15.2	23
17	Farense	26	3	8	15	-20	-18.6	17
18	Boavista	26	3	6	17	-27	-16.8	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	13	12	0	1	+33	+25.0	36
2	Sp Lisbon	13	11	1	1	+22	+18.8	34
3	Porto	13	10	3	0	+25	+22.5	33
4	Guimaraes	13	7	5	1	+9	+8.1	26
5	Casa Pia	14	7	4	3	+5	-0.7	25
6	Sp Braga	13	7	3	3	+10	+13.3	24
7	Moreirense	13	6	5	2	+3	-0.2	23
8	Nacional	13	7	2	4	+1	-1.4	23
9	Santa Clara	13	7	2	4	+1	+10.5	23
10	Estoril	13	6	4	3	+0	-4.7	22
11	Rio Ave	13	5	6	2	+1	-3.2	21
12	Famalicao	13	4	6	3	+1	+0.7	18
13	Gil Vicente	13	4	4	5	+0	-1.4	16
14	Estrela	14	4	4	6	-6	-6.9	16
15	AVS	13	3	5	5	-6	-7.8	14
16	Arouca	13	3	5	5	-6	-7.2	14
17	Farense	13	2	1	10	-13	-5.5	7
18	Boavista	13	1	3	9	-14	-4.3	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	9	4	1	+28	+23.4	31
2	Sp Braga	13	9	2	2	+10	+1.6	29
3	Benfica	13	8	2	3	+9	+14.2	26
4	Porto	13	6	2	5	+6	+1.8	20
5	Santa Clara	13	6	2	5	+1	-2.8	20
6	Famalicao	13	4	4	5	-1	-8.4	16
7	Guimaraes	13	3	6	4	+0	+2.4	15
8	Arouca	13	4	3	6	-8	-1.7	15
9	Estoril	13	3	5	5	-7	-10.1	14
10	Casa Pia	13	4	2	7	-7	-7.9	14
11	Farense	13	1	7	5	-7	-13.2	10
12	AVS	13	1	6	6	-11	-5.1	9
13	Boavista	13	2	3	8	-13	-12.4	9
14	Moreirense	13	2	2	9	-9	+0.1	8
15	Rio Ave	14	2	2	10	-16	-14.0	8
16	Estrela	13	1	4	8	-14	-8.3	7
17	Gil Vicente	13	1	4	8	-16	-9.8	7
18	Nacional	13	1	3	9	-11	-5.6	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.