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Eredivisie

Referee: A Bos

Heerenveen

T T U U U

3–1

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 22/21 matches

Win Ø 42%

32%

52%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

50%

57%

Both score Ø 49%

45%

52%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,92 xG 1,14

42% Possession 58%

10 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 6

1 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 10. · AZ Alkmaar 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	23	18	3	2	+33	+23.3	57
2	PSV Eindhoven	24	16	4	4	+44	+29.6	52
3	Utrecht	24	13	7	4	+7	+2.0	46
4	Feyenoord	24	12	8	4	+21	+19.4	44
5	Twente	22	11	7	4	+17	+16.6	40
6	Go Ahead Eagles	24	11	5	8	+5	+8.4	38
7	AZ Alkmaar	21	11	4	6	+9	+10.8	37
8	For Sittard	24	8	5	11	-11	-5.6	29
9	Groningen	24	7	7	10	-10	-9.2	28
10	Heerenveen	22	7	6	9	-7	-0.6	27
11	NAC Breda	24	8	3	13	-16	-14.8	27
12	Nijmegen	23	7	5	11	+2	+3.1	26
13	Zwolle	23	6	7	10	-8	-17.8	25
14	Willem II	23	6	6	11	-8	-18.4	24
15	Heracles	23	5	9	9	-15	-14.4	24
16	Sparta Rotterdam	23	4	8	11	-14	-2.6	20
17	Waalwijk	24	4	5	15	-17	-13.9	17
18	Almere City	23	3	5	15	-32	-16.0	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	12	11	1	0	+23	+17.6	34
2	PSV Eindhoven	12	9	3	0	+30	+18.1	30
3	Go Ahead Eagles	13	8	3	2	+11	+12.3	27
4	Twente	10	7	3	0	+17	+13.9	24
5	Feyenoord	12	7	3	2	+11	+14.0	24
6	Heerenveen	11	5	5	1	+7	+5.3	20
7	Groningen	12	5	5	2	+6	+1.6	20
8	NAC Breda	12	6	2	4	+1	-0.7	20
9	Utrecht	12	6	2	4	-3	+5.5	20
10	Zwolle	12	5	2	5	+1	-5.5	17
11	Nijmegen	12	4	4	4	+9	+8.2	16
12	Heracles	12	3	7	2	+2	+0.2	16
13	AZ Alkmaar	10	5	1	4	+2	+7.5	16
14	For Sittard	11	5	0	6	-5	+0.1	15
15	Willem II	12	3	3	6	-1	-6.9	12
16	Waalwijk	12	3	2	7	-3	-4.5	11
17	Sparta Rotterdam	11	1	5	5	-8	+0.7	8
18	Almere City	11	2	1	8	-19	-4.3	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Utrecht	12	7	5	0	+10	-3.5	26
2	Ajax	11	7	2	2	+10	+5.7	23
3	PSV Eindhoven	12	7	1	4	+14	+11.4	22
4	AZ Alkmaar	11	6	3	2	+7	+3.3	21
5	Feyenoord	12	5	5	2	+10	+5.4	20
6	Twente	12	4	4	4	+0	+2.7	16
7	For Sittard	13	3	5	5	-6	-5.7	14
8	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	3	6	-6	-3.3	12
9	Willem II	11	3	3	5	-7	-11.5	12
10	Go Ahead Eagles	11	3	2	6	-6	-3.9	11
11	Nijmegen	11	3	1	7	-7	-5.1	10
12	Zwolle	11	1	5	5	-9	-12.3	8
13	Groningen	12	2	2	8	-16	-10.8	8
14	Heracles	11	2	2	7	-17	-14.6	8
15	Almere City	12	1	4	7	-13	-11.7	7
16	Heerenveen	11	2	1	8	-14	-5.8	7
17	NAC Breda	12	2	1	9	-17	-14.1	7
18	Waalwijk	12	1	3	8	-14	-9.5	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.