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La Liga

Referee: Pablo González

Real Madrid

T S S T S

3–2

Full-time

Leganes

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Leganes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 43%

64%

21%

Points per game

2,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

61%

39%

Both score Ø 50%

57%

43%

Average goals

3,1

2,5

Scored

2,1

0,9

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,87 xG 2,87

71% Possession 29%

24 Shots 10

10 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Leganes 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	28	20	3	5	+51	+35.8	63
2	Real Madrid	28	18	6	4	+32	+24.1	60
3	Ath Madrid	29	16	9	4	+24	+19.5	57
4	Ath Bilbao	28	14	10	4	+22	+17.5	52
5	Villarreal	27	12	8	7	+11	+18.0	44
6	Betis	28	12	8	8	+3	+9.8	44
7	Vallecano	29	10	10	9	+2	+1.0	40
8	Mallorca	28	11	7	10	-6	+1.7	40
9	Celta	28	11	6	11	+0	+9.2	39
10	Sociedad	29	11	5	13	-4	-0.4	38
11	Getafe	28	9	9	10	+2	-7.3	36
12	Sevilla	28	9	9	10	-5	-7.9	36
13	Girona	28	9	7	12	-5	-2.0	34
14	Osasuna	28	7	12	9	-9	-9.3	33
15	Espanol	28	7	8	13	-13	-23.4	29
16	Valencia	28	6	10	12	-15	-8.0	28
17	Alaves	29	6	9	14	-12	-2.1	27
18	Leganes	28	6	9	13	-17	-23.6	27
19	Las Palmas	28	6	7	15	-15	-26.3	25
20	Valladolid	29	4	4	21	-46	-26.1	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	13	11	1	1	+21	+19.5	34
2	Ath Madrid	15	10	4	1	+15	+18.4	34
3	Barcelona	13	10	0	3	+27	+26.3	30
4	Ath Bilbao	14	8	5	1	+18	+12.5	29
5	Celta	14	9	2	3	+10	+6.0	29
6	Betis	14	7	5	2	+7	+14.6	26
7	Osasuna	15	6	6	3	+4	+2.9	24
8	Espanol	15	6	6	3	+3	-5.8	24
9	Sociedad	15	7	2	6	+2	+4.2	23
10	Mallorca	15	6	5	4	+0	-0.1	23
11	Girona	14	6	3	5	+4	+5.8	21
12	Valencia	14	6	3	5	+2	+2.4	21
13	Villarreal	13	5	5	3	+8	+8.9	20
14	Vallecano	14	5	5	4	+1	+8.5	20
15	Getafe	14	4	7	3	+3	+2.3	19
16	Sevilla	14	5	4	5	-4	-1.0	19
17	Leganes	14	5	2	7	-7	-8.8	17
18	Alaves	14	4	4	6	-4	+0.8	16
19	Las Palmas	14	3	5	6	-4	-6.3	14
20	Valladolid	14	3	4	7	-13	-7.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	10	3	2	+24	+9.5	33
2	Real Madrid	15	7	5	3	+11	+4.6	26
3	Villarreal	14	7	3	4	+3	+9.1	24
4	Ath Madrid	14	6	5	3	+9	+1.1	23
5	Ath Bilbao	14	6	5	3	+4	+5.0	23
6	Vallecano	15	5	5	5	+1	-7.6	20
7	Betis	14	5	3	6	-4	-4.9	18
8	Sevilla	14	4	5	5	-1	-6.9	17
9	Getafe	14	5	2	7	-1	-9.7	17
10	Mallorca	13	5	2	6	-6	+1.8	17
11	Sociedad	14	4	3	7	-6	-4.6	15
12	Girona	14	3	4	7	-9	-7.8	13
13	Alaves	15	2	5	8	-8	-2.9	11
14	Las Palmas	14	3	2	9	-11	-20.0	11
15	Celta	14	2	4	8	-10	+3.2	10
16	Leganes	14	1	7	6	-10	-14.7	10
17	Osasuna	13	1	6	6	-13	-12.2	9
18	Valencia	14	0	7	7	-17	-10.3	7
19	Espanol	13	1	2	10	-16	-17.7	5
20	Valladolid	15	1	0	14	-33	-19.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.