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Eredivisie

Referee: M van den Kerkhof

Groningen

U T S U T

2–1

Full-time

Nijmegen

T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Groningen Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,3

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 21/20 matches

Win Ø 30%

24%

35%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

38%

60%

Both score Ø 42%

38%

45%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,6

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,19 xG 0,84

33% Possession 67%

17 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 6

0 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 5

1 Yellow cards 0

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Groningen 15. · Nijmegen 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	22	16	3	3	+45	+28.5	51
2	Ajax	20	15	3	2	+25	+17.8	48
3	Utrecht	21	12	6	3	+7	+1.9	42
4	Feyenoord	20	10	6	4	+17	+16.6	36
5	Twente	19	10	5	4	+15	+16.3	35
6	Go Ahead Eagles	21	9	5	7	+5	+9.2	32
7	AZ Alkmaar	19	9	4	6	+6	+9.1	31
8	For Sittard	21	7	5	9	-9	-3.8	26
9	NAC Breda	21	8	2	11	-10	-10.6	26
10	Heerenveen	20	7	4	9	-7	-1.5	25
11	Nijmegen	20	7	3	10	+3	+5.1	24
12	Zwolle	21	6	6	9	-6	-16.8	24
13	Willem II	22	6	6	10	-6	-17.7	24
14	Heracles	22	5	9	8	-11	-12.3	24
15	Groningen	21	5	6	10	-13	-11.0	21
16	Sparta Rotterdam	21	4	8	9	-10	-1.4	20
17	Waalwijk	21	3	5	13	-19	-14.8	14
18	Almere City	20	2	4	14	-32	-14.5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	9	2	0	+30	+16.4	29
2	Ajax	10	9	1	0	+17	+13.8	28
3	Twente	9	6	3	0	+15	+13.2	21
4	Go Ahead Eagles	11	6	3	2	+9	+11.4	21
5	Heerenveen	10	5	4	1	+7	+4.6	19
6	NAC Breda	11	6	1	4	+1	-0.9	19
7	Feyenoord	9	5	2	2	+7	+11.0	17
8	Utrecht	10	5	2	3	-3	+3.6	17
9	Groningen	10	4	4	2	+5	+0.5	16
10	Heracles	12	3	7	2	+2	+0.2	16
11	Zwolle	11	5	1	5	+1	-5.3	16
12	Nijmegen	11	4	3	4	+9	+7.9	15
13	For Sittard	10	5	0	5	-3	+1.9	15
14	Willem II	11	3	3	5	+1	-6.2	12
15	AZ Alkmaar	8	3	1	4	-1	+5.7	10
16	Waalwijk	10	2	2	6	-7	-6.1	8
17	Sparta Rotterdam	11	1	5	5	-8	+0.7	8
18	Almere City	11	2	1	8	-19	-4.3	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Utrecht	11	7	4	0	+10	-1.8	25
2	PSV Eindhoven	11	7	1	3	+15	+12.1	22
3	AZ Alkmaar	11	6	3	2	+7	+3.3	21
4	Ajax	10	6	2	2	+8	+4.0	20
5	Feyenoord	11	5	4	2	+10	+5.7	19
6	Twente	10	4	2	4	+0	+3.2	14
7	Sparta Rotterdam	10	3	3	4	-2	-2.1	12
8	Willem II	11	3	3	5	-7	-11.5	12
9	Go Ahead Eagles	10	3	2	5	-4	-2.2	11
10	For Sittard	11	2	5	4	-6	-5.7	11
11	Nijmegen	9	3	0	6	-6	-2.9	9
12	Zwolle	10	1	5	4	-7	-11.4	8
13	Heracles	10	2	2	6	-13	-12.5	8
14	NAC Breda	10	2	1	7	-11	-9.7	7
15	Waalwijk	11	1	3	7	-12	-8.8	6
16	Heerenveen	10	2	0	8	-14	-6.0	6
17	Groningen	11	1	2	8	-18	-11.6	5
18	Almere City	9	0	3	6	-13	-10.2	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.