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Championship

Referee: M Donohue

Middlesbrough

S S T S U

2–1

Full-time

Oxford

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Oxford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 38/38 matches

Win Ø 33%

39%

26%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

47%

37%

Both score Ø 53%

53%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,40 xG 1,45

74% Possession 26%

24 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

11 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

11 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

5 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 8. · Oxford 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	38	23	11	4	+51	+46.0	80
2	Burnley	38	21	15	2	+41	+14.8	78
3	Sheffield United	36	24	6	6	+25	+13.3	78
4	Sunderland	35	19	11	5	+22	+14.0	68
5	West Brom	38	13	18	7	+14	+8.0	57
6	Bristol City	36	14	14	8	+9	+6.2	56
7	Coventry	37	16	7	14	+2	+17.0	55
8	Middlesbrough	38	15	9	14	+9	+10.7	54
9	Watford	39	15	8	16	-4	-5.8	53
10	Blackburn	38	15	7	16	+2	-2.0	52
11	Millwall	38	13	12	13	-2	+3.1	51
12	Sheffield Weds	38	14	9	15	-6	-0.8	51
13	Norwich	38	12	13	13	+6	+11.2	49
14	Preston	38	10	17	11	-5	-0.5	47
15	QPR	38	11	12	15	-6	-5.8	45
16	Swansea	38	12	8	18	-11	-2.8	44
17	Portsmouth	38	11	9	18	-15	-13.1	42
18	Oxford	38	10	12	16	-16	-22.5	42
19	Hull	39	10	11	18	-9	-5.3	41
20	Stoke	38	9	12	17	-14	-17.4	39
21	Cardiff	38	9	12	17	-20	-15.8	39
22	Derby	38	10	8	20	-11	-8.1	38
23	Luton	39	10	8	21	-25	-7.2	38
24	Plymouth	39	7	13	19	-37	-37.1	34

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	19	15	3	1	+38	+28.7	48
2	Sheffield United	18	13	2	3	+14	+13.2	41
3	Burnley	19	10	9	0	+22	+8.9	39
4	Sunderland	18	11	6	1	+16	+12.6	39
5	Bristol City	18	10	6	2	+14	+8.5	36
6	Watford	20	11	3	6	+5	+0.5	36
7	West Brom	19	9	8	2	+13	+9.1	35
8	Coventry	18	10	3	5	+9	+10.1	33
9	Blackburn	19	10	3	6	+9	+5.5	33
10	Portsmouth	19	9	5	5	+10	+3.3	32
11	Middlesbrough	19	9	5	5	+7	+7.1	32
12	Oxford	19	9	5	5	+2	-5.2	32
13	Norwich	19	8	7	4	+17	+12.7	31
14	Preston	19	7	10	2	+6	+7.0	31
15	Millwall	19	8	4	7	+3	+6.3	28
16	Derby	19	8	3	8	+6	+1.7	27
17	QPR	19	7	6	6	+3	+3.4	27
18	Luton	19	7	6	6	+1	+7.6	27
19	Swansea	19	7	5	7	+4	+7.0	26
20	Stoke	19	6	8	5	+2	-4.4	26
21	Plymouth	19	6	7	6	-2	-6.7	25
22	Cardiff	19	7	3	9	-2	-2.2	24
23	Sheffield Weds	19	5	7	7	-1	+3.8	22
24	Hull	20	4	7	9	-4	+4.4	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	19	11	6	2	+19	+5.9	39
2	Sheffield United	18	11	4	3	+11	+0.1	37
3	Leeds	19	8	8	3	+13	+17.3	32
4	Sunderland	17	8	5	4	+6	+1.4	29
5	Sheffield Weds	19	9	2	8	-5	-4.6	29
6	Millwall	19	5	8	6	-5	-3.2	23
7	Middlesbrough	19	6	4	9	+2	+3.6	22
8	West Brom	19	4	10	5	+1	-1.1	22
9	Hull	19	6	4	9	-5	-9.7	22
10	Coventry	19	6	4	9	-7	+6.9	22
11	Bristol City	18	4	8	6	-5	-2.3	20
12	Blackburn	19	5	4	10	-7	-7.5	19
13	QPR	19	4	6	9	-9	-9.2	18
14	Norwich	19	4	6	9	-11	-1.5	18
15	Swansea	19	5	3	11	-15	-9.9	18
16	Watford	19	4	5	10	-9	-6.3	17
17	Preston	19	3	7	9	-11	-7.5	16
18	Cardiff	19	2	9	8	-18	-13.6	15
19	Stoke	19	3	4	12	-16	-13.0	13
20	Derby	19	2	5	12	-17	-9.8	11
21	Luton	20	3	2	15	-26	-14.8	11
22	Oxford	19	1	7	11	-18	-17.4	10
23	Portsmouth	19	2	4	13	-25	-16.4	10
24	Plymouth	20	1	6	13	-35	-30.4	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.