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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Man City

S S S T T

3–2

Full-time

Leeds

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

2,3

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 42%

58%

25%

Points per game

1,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

58%

67%

Both score Ø 46%

42%

50%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

2,0

0,9

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,10 xG 1,54

62% Possession 38%

18 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 1

2 Offside 4

17 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 3. · Leeds 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	12	9	2	1	+18	+15.1	29
2	Chelsea	12	7	2	3	+12	+8.2	23
3	Man City	12	7	1	4	+14	+9.3	22
4	Aston Villa	12	6	3	3	+4	-5.3	21
5	Crystal Palace	12	5	5	2	+7	+6.0	20
6	Brighton	12	5	4	3	+3	+2.9	19
7	Sunderland	12	5	4	3	+3	-4.9	19
8	Bournemouth	12	5	4	3	-1	+1.7	19
9	Tottenham	12	5	3	4	+6	-6.0	18
10	Man United	12	5	3	4	+0	+3.2	18
11	Everton	12	5	3	4	+0	-2.3	18
12	Liverpool	12	6	0	6	-2	+4.3	18
13	Brentford	12	5	1	6	-1	+3.8	16
14	Newcastle	12	4	3	5	-2	+1.5	15
15	Fulham	12	4	2	6	-3	-1.8	14
16	Nott'm Forest	12	3	3	6	-7	-3.2	12
17	West Ham	12	3	2	7	-10	-7.7	11
18	Leeds	12	3	2	7	-11	-1.5	11
19	Burnley	12	3	1	8	-10	-17.0	10
20	Wolves	12	0	2	10	-20	-6.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	6	5	1	0	+14	+9.0	16
2	Man City	6	5	0	1	+12	+7.1	15
3	Brighton	6	4	2	0	+6	+2.6	14
4	Bournemouth	6	4	2	0	+6	+5.8	14
5	Fulham	6	4	1	1	+6	+2.3	13
6	Brentford	6	4	1	1	+5	+2.3	13
7	Aston Villa	6	4	1	1	+5	-2.1	13
8	Sunderland	6	3	3	0	+6	-0.5	12
9	Man United	6	4	0	2	+4	+6.8	12
10	Newcastle	6	4	0	2	+3	+3.4	12
11	Liverpool	6	4	0	2	+2	+3.3	12
12	Everton	6	3	2	1	+2	+1.8	11
13	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	+3	+3.6	10
14	Crystal Palace	6	2	4	0	+3	+5.3	10
15	Leeds	6	2	2	2	+0	+4.8	8
16	Burnley	6	2	1	3	-1	-8.0	7
17	Nott'm Forest	6	2	1	3	-3	+2.0	7
18	West Ham	6	2	0	4	-7	-3.2	6
19	Tottenham	6	1	2	3	+0	-3.2	5
20	Wolves	6	0	1	5	-10	-0.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+9	+4.6	13
2	Tottenham	6	4	1	1	+6	-2.9	13
3	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+4	+6.1	13
4	Crystal Palace	6	3	1	2	+4	+0.7	10
5	Aston Villa	6	2	2	2	-1	-3.2	8
6	Man City	6	2	1	3	+2	+2.2	7
7	Everton	6	2	1	3	-2	-4.1	7
8	Sunderland	6	2	1	3	-3	-4.4	7
9	Man United	6	1	3	2	-4	-3.7	6
10	Liverpool	6	2	0	4	-4	+1.0	6
11	West Ham	6	1	2	3	-3	-4.6	5
12	Brighton	6	1	2	3	-3	+0.3	5
13	Nott'm Forest	6	1	2	3	-4	-5.3	5
14	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-7	-4.1	5
15	Newcastle	6	0	3	3	-5	-1.9	3
16	Brentford	6	1	0	5	-6	+1.5	3
17	Burnley	6	1	0	5	-9	-9.0	3
18	Leeds	6	1	0	5	-11	-6.3	3
19	Fulham	6	0	1	5	-9	-4.1	1
20	Wolves	6	0	1	5	-10	-5.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.