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Premier League

Referee: A Madley

Man City

U S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Leeds

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,3

4,3

Scored

2,7

1,2

Conceded

0,7

3,2

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 33/34 matches

Win Ø 49%

76%

21%

Points per game

2,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

70%

62%

Both score Ø 63%

61%

65%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

2,6

1,3

Conceded

0,9

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,57 xG 0,23

81% Possession 19%

18 Shots 4

6 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 1

4 Offside 3

3 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 1. · Leeds 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	33	25	4	4	+57	+23.1	79
2	Arsenal	34	24	6	4	+42	+11.2	78
3	Newcastle	33	18	11	4	+34	+13.6	65
4	Man United	33	19	6	8	+9	+2.5	63
5	Liverpool	34	17	8	9	+24	+10.1	59
6	Brighton	32	16	7	9	+22	+18.9	55
7	Tottenham	34	16	6	12	+6	-1.1	54
8	Aston Villa	34	16	6	12	+4	-2.0	54
9	Brentford	34	12	14	8	+8	+4.2	50
10	Fulham	34	13	6	15	-1	-9.3	45
11	Crystal Palace	34	10	10	14	-10	-3.4	40
12	Chelsea	33	10	9	14	-7	+2.4	39
13	Bournemouth	34	11	6	17	-28	-5.8	39
14	Wolves	34	10	7	17	-21	-9.0	37
15	West Ham	34	9	7	18	-13	-3.9	34
16	Leicester	34	8	6	20	-13	-2.7	30
17	Leeds	34	7	9	18	-24	-9.5	30
18	Nott'm Forest	34	7	9	18	-32	-14.9	30
19	Everton	34	6	11	17	-25	-10.5	29
20	Southampton	34	6	6	22	-32	-13.9	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	17	15	1	1	+41	+13.8	46
2	Arsenal	17	13	3	1	+26	+10.7	42
3	Liverpool	17	12	4	1	+28	+11.0	40
4	Man United	16	12	3	1	+20	+8.3	39
5	Newcastle	16	10	5	1	+21	+10.5	35
6	Tottenham	17	11	1	5	+13	+2.8	34
7	Aston Villa	17	10	2	5	+10	+3.1	32
8	Brentford	17	8	7	2	+14	+4.4	31
9	Brighton	16	9	3	4	+18	+12.3	30
10	Wolves	17	8	2	7	-2	+0.4	26
11	Fulham	17	7	4	6	+0	-2.8	25
12	Nott'm Forest	17	6	6	5	+1	-6.8	24
13	Crystal Palace	17	6	6	5	-4	-3.4	24
14	Chelsea	17	6	5	6	+1	+4.0	23
15	West Ham	17	6	4	7	-1	+1.4	22
16	Bournemouth	17	6	4	7	-5	-2.1	22
17	Leeds	17	5	6	6	-8	-1.9	21
18	Everton	17	5	3	9	-9	-2.1	18
19	Leicester	17	4	4	9	-2	-0.6	16
20	Southampton	17	2	4	11	-16	-5.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	17	11	3	3	+16	+0.5	36
2	Man City	16	10	3	3	+16	+9.3	33
3	Newcastle	17	8	6	3	+13	+3.1	30
4	Brighton	16	7	4	5	+4	+6.6	25
5	Man United	17	7	3	7	-11	-5.8	24
6	Aston Villa	17	6	4	7	-6	-5.1	22
7	Fulham	17	6	2	9	-1	-6.5	20
8	Tottenham	17	5	5	7	-7	-4.0	20
9	Liverpool	17	5	4	8	-4	-0.9	19
10	Brentford	17	4	7	6	-6	-0.3	19
11	Bournemouth	17	5	2	10	-23	-3.7	17
12	Crystal Palace	17	4	4	9	-6	+0.0	16
13	Chelsea	16	4	4	8	-8	-1.6	16
14	Leicester	17	4	2	11	-11	-2.1	14
15	Southampton	17	4	2	11	-16	-8.7	14
16	West Ham	17	3	3	11	-12	-5.3	12
17	Everton	17	1	8	8	-16	-8.3	11
18	Wolves	17	2	5	10	-19	-9.3	11
19	Leeds	17	2	3	12	-16	-7.5	9
20	Nott'm Forest	17	1	3	13	-33	-8.2	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.