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2. Bundesliga

Referee: Felix Wagner

Holstein Kiel

U S T S T

0–1

Full-time

Hertha

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Holstein Kiel Hertha

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 43%

31%

54%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

38%

Both score Ø 39%

54%

23%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,1

1,2

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,30 xG 1,87

52% Possession 48%

9 Shots 10

0 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

8 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Holstein Kiel 11. · Hertha 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	14	10	1	3	+10	+3.8	31
2	Paderborn	14	9	2	3	+7	+1.2	29
3	Hannover	14	8	3	3	+9	+3.6	27
4	Elversberg	13	8	2	3	+14	-1.2	26
5	Darmstadt	13	7	4	2	+10	+5.3	25
6	Kaiserslautern	13	7	2	4	+9	+2.7	23
7	Hertha	13	7	2	4	+6	-1.0	23
8	Karlsruhe	14	6	3	5	-3	-6.8	21
9	Nurnberg	13	5	3	5	-1	+1.5	18
10	Bielefeld	13	5	2	6	+5	+0.6	17
11	Holstein Kiel	13	4	3	6	-2	-3.3	15
12	Preußen Münster	13	4	3	6	-4	-2.3	15
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	4	2	7	-9	-4.4	14
14	Bochum	13	4	1	8	-3	+3.0	13
15	Greuther Furth	13	4	1	8	-14	-2.2	13
16	Dresden	13	2	4	7	-7	-1.1	10
17	Braunschweig	13	3	1	9	-13	+0.2	10
18	Magdeburg	13	2	1	10	-14	+0.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	7	6	0	1	+5	+2.6	18
2	Kaiserslautern	7	5	1	1	+9	+3.5	16
3	Darmstadt	7	4	3	0	+8	+4.2	15
4	Karlsruhe	7	5	0	2	+4	-2.7	15
5	Paderborn	7	5	0	2	+3	+0.7	15
6	Elversberg	6	4	2	0	+9	-0.6	14
7	Hertha	7	4	1	2	+1	+1.1	13
8	Bielefeld	7	4	0	3	+8	+4.7	12
9	Preußen Münster	7	3	3	1	+3	-2.8	12
10	Hannover	7	4	0	3	+1	+2.0	12
11	Nurnberg	7	3	2	2	+0	+0.9	11
12	Bochum	6	3	0	3	+2	+5.2	9
13	Holstein Kiel	6	2	2	2	+1	+0.1	8
14	Greuther Furth	6	2	1	3	-6	-0.6	7
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	7	1	2	4	-6	-2.7	5
16	Braunschweig	6	1	1	4	-8	+1.9	4
17	Magdeburg	6	1	0	5	-7	+2.4	3
18	Dresden	6	0	2	4	-4	+1.6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hannover	7	4	3	0	+8	+1.5	15
2	Paderborn	7	4	2	1	+4	+0.5	14
3	Schalke 04	7	4	1	2	+5	+1.2	13
4	Elversberg	7	4	0	3	+5	-0.6	12
5	Hertha	6	3	1	2	+5	-2.0	10
6	Darmstadt	6	3	1	2	+2	+1.2	10
7	Fortuna Dusseldorf	6	3	0	3	-3	-1.8	9
8	Dresden	7	2	2	3	-3	-2.7	8
9	Kaiserslautern	6	2	1	3	+0	-0.8	7
10	Nurnberg	6	2	1	3	-1	+0.7	7
11	Holstein Kiel	7	2	1	4	-3	-3.4	7
12	Braunschweig	7	2	0	5	-5	-1.8	6
13	Karlsruhe	7	1	3	3	-7	-4.0	6
14	Greuther Furth	7	2	0	5	-8	-1.7	6
15	Bielefeld	6	1	2	3	-3	-4.2	5
16	Bochum	7	1	1	5	-5	-2.2	4
17	Magdeburg	7	1	1	5	-7	-2.0	4
18	Preußen Münster	6	1	0	5	-7	+0.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.