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Serie B

Referee: Antonio Rapuano

Sudtirol

T T U U U

0–1

Full-time

Avellino

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sudtirol Avellino

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,7

3,5

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 23%

15%

31%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

38%

54%

Both score Ø 58%

69%

46%

Average goals

2,4

3,2

Scored

1,1

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,67 xG 0,77

61% Possession 39%

20 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

22 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sudtirol 16. · Avellino 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monza	13	9	2	2	+11	+4.0	29
2	Modena	14	7	5	2	+12	+3.0	26
3	Cesena	14	8	2	4	+6	+0.9	26
4	Frosinone	13	7	4	2	+12	+4.7	25
5	Venezia	13	6	4	3	+10	+2.2	22
6	Palermo	13	5	5	3	+6	-2.9	20
7	Reggiana	13	4	5	4	+0	+1.1	17
8	Empoli	13	4	5	4	-1	+1.0	17
9	Juve Stabia	12	4	5	3	-1	-0.5	17
10	Carrarese	13	3	7	3	+2	-0.4	16
11	Catanzaro	13	3	7	3	+1	-1.3	16
12	Avellino	13	4	4	5	-9	-0.9	16
13	Virtus Entella	13	3	6	4	-5	-1.5	15
14	Padova	13	3	5	5	-4	-2.6	14
15	Mantova	13	4	2	7	-6	+1.9	14
16	Sudtirol	13	2	7	4	-3	-3.5	13
17	Bari	12	3	4	5	-6	-3.5	13
18	Sampdoria	13	2	4	7	-7	+0.9	10
19	Pescara	13	1	6	6	-10	-2.5	9
20	Spezia	13	1	5	7	-8	+0.1	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monza	7	6	0	1	+6	+0.5	18
2	Modena	7	5	2	0	+10	+1.6	17
3	Venezia	6	5	0	1	+10	+0.9	15
4	Virtus Entella	7	3	4	0	+4	+1.1	13
5	Palermo	7	3	3	1	+5	-1.2	12
6	Reggiana	6	3	3	0	+5	-0.4	12
7	Frosinone	6	3	2	1	+7	+1.8	11
8	Cesena	6	3	2	1	+4	+1.4	11
9	Juve Stabia	5	3	2	0	+4	+0.6	11
10	Empoli	7	2	5	0	+3	+0.6	11
11	Bari	6	3	2	1	+2	-2.8	11
12	Catanzaro	7	2	4	1	+1	–	10
13	Mantova	7	3	1	3	-3	+1.9	10
14	Avellino	6	3	1	2	-3	-0.4	10
15	Carrarese	7	2	3	2	+1	-1.5	9
16	Sampdoria	7	2	2	3	+0	+1.0	8
17	Pescara	7	1	4	2	+0	-2.5	7
18	Sudtirol	6	2	1	3	+0	-1.8	7
19	Padova	6	1	3	2	-2	-1.3	6
20	Spezia	7	0	3	4	-6	+0.7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cesena	8	5	0	3	+2	-0.5	15
2	Frosinone	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.8	14
3	Monza	6	3	2	1	+5	+3.5	11
4	Modena	7	2	3	2	+2	+1.4	9
5	Palermo	6	2	2	2	+1	-1.7	8
6	Padova	7	2	2	3	-2	-1.3	8
7	Carrarese	6	1	4	1	+1	+1.0	7
8	Venezia	7	1	4	2	+0	+1.3	7
9	Catanzaro	6	1	3	2	+0	-1.3	6
10	Sudtirol	7	0	6	1	-3	-1.6	6
11	Empoli	6	2	0	4	-4	+0.4	6
12	Juve Stabia	7	1	3	3	-5	-1.0	6
13	Avellino	7	1	3	3	-6	-0.6	6
14	Spezia	6	1	2	3	-2	-0.6	5
15	Reggiana	7	1	2	4	-5	+1.5	5
16	Mantova	6	1	1	4	-3	–	4
17	Sampdoria	6	0	2	4	-7	-0.2	2
18	Bari	6	0	2	4	-8	-0.7	2
19	Virtus Entella	6	0	2	4	-9	-2.7	2
20	Pescara	6	0	2	4	-10	–	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.