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La Liga

Referee: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias

Barcelona

S U S S T

3–1

Full-time

Alaves

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Alaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

4,3

2,2

Scored

2,5

1,5

Conceded

1,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 54%

77%

31%

Points per game

2,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

92%

31%

Both score Ø 58%

69%

46%

Average goals

3,9

1,8

Scored

2,8

0,8

Conceded

1,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,24 xG 1,59

69% Possession 31%

18 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

0 Offside 8

10 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 2. · Alaves 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	13	10	2	1	+16	+16.6	32
2	Barcelona	13	10	1	2	+21	+11.6	31
3	Villarreal	13	9	2	2	+15	+7.9	29
4	Ath Madrid	13	8	4	1	+14	+10.9	28
5	Betis	13	5	6	2	+6	+5.6	21
6	Espanol	13	6	3	4	+1	+5.5	21
7	Getafe	14	6	2	6	-2	-3.5	20
8	Ath Bilbao	13	5	2	6	-5	+4.0	17
9	Sociedad	13	4	4	5	-1	+1.2	16
10	Sevilla	13	5	1	7	-2	-9.6	16
11	Celta	13	3	7	3	-2	-2.0	16
12	Elche	14	3	7	4	-2	-5.2	16
13	Vallecano	13	4	4	5	-2	+1.2	16
14	Alaves	13	4	3	6	-1	+1.7	15
15	Mallorca	14	3	4	7	-7	-10.8	13
16	Valencia	13	3	4	6	-9	-4.9	13
17	Osasuna	14	3	3	8	-6	-3.7	12
18	Girona	13	2	5	6	-13	-9.4	11
19	Levante	13	2	3	8	-8	-3.8	9
20	Oviedo	13	2	3	8	-13	-13.3	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Villarreal	7	6	1	0	+14	+6.9	19
2	Ath Madrid	7	6	1	0	+12	+11.1	19
3	Barcelona	6	6	0	0	+17	+9.3	18
4	Real Madrid	6	6	0	0	+11	+9.9	18
5	Espanol	8	5	1	2	+2	+2.2	16
6	Betis	7	4	1	2	+5	+4.1	13
7	Elche	7	3	4	0	+4	+0.4	13
8	Ath Bilbao	7	4	1	2	+2	+7.4	13
9	Valencia	7	3	2	2	+3	+3.6	11
10	Alaves	7	3	2	2	+2	+2.5	11
11	Getafe	7	3	2	2	+2	-2.8	11
12	Sociedad	6	3	1	2	+1	+3.1	10
13	Osasuna	6	3	1	2	+1	+0.7	10
14	Mallorca	7	2	4	1	-1	-3.4	10
15	Girona	7	2	2	3	-6	-5.3	8
16	Sevilla	6	2	1	3	+0	-1.4	7
17	Vallecano	5	1	3	1	+0	+2.1	6
18	Celta	7	0	5	2	-4	-0.1	5
19	Oviedo	7	1	2	4	-8	-8.6	5
20	Levante	5	0	1	4	-8	-5.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	7	4	2	1	+5	+6.6	14
2	Barcelona	7	4	1	2	+4	+2.3	13
3	Celta	6	3	2	1	+2	-1.9	11
4	Villarreal	6	3	1	2	+1	+1.1	10
5	Vallecano	8	3	1	4	-2	-0.9	10
6	Ath Madrid	6	2	3	1	+2	-0.1	9
7	Sevilla	7	3	0	4	-2	-8.2	9
8	Getafe	7	3	0	4	-4	-0.7	9
9	Betis	6	1	5	0	+1	+1.4	8
10	Levante	8	2	2	4	+0	+1.2	8
11	Sociedad	7	1	3	3	-2	-2.0	6
12	Espanol	5	1	2	2	-1	+3.3	5
13	Alaves	6	1	1	4	-3	-0.8	4
14	Oviedo	6	1	1	4	-5	-4.7	4
15	Ath Bilbao	6	1	1	4	-7	-3.4	4
16	Mallorca	7	1	0	6	-6	-7.4	3
17	Elche	7	0	3	4	-6	-5.6	3
18	Girona	6	0	3	3	-7	-4.2	3
19	Osasuna	8	0	2	6	-7	-4.3	2
20	Valencia	6	0	2	4	-12	-8.5	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.